342
FXUS61 KCAR 212328
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:28PM UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKIES AND POPS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. OTHERWISE THIS IS AN AVIATION UPDATE FOR THE 00Z
TAFS, SEE BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR
URBAN FLOODING.
2) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH SURF ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
3) POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY/TUESDAY, BRINGING
SOME WETTING RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW A
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. OVERRUNNING RAIN WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES DOWNEAST TONIGHT, WITH 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO SUPPORT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET,
EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT WILL OCCUR DOWNEAST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE
STEADIER RAIN ENDING IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM
SECTOR WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD
FRONT STARTING TO CROSS LATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL HELP PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WILL BE PROVIDED
FROM A DISTURBANCE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF. THE
STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING AND DE-STABILIZATION WHICH OCCURS IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH GREATER SUN LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY. STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. CAPE VALUES OF
1000-2000 J/KG, WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF
DE-STABILIZATION. THE REGION REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
END IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 3/4 TO 1.50 INCHES DOWNEAST, WITH AROUND 1/3 TO 3/4 OF AN
INCH NORTH. HOWEVER, LOCALLY GREATER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY WITH ANY CONVECTION. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING, PARTICULARLY DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH
SURF ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY WITH
LARGE BREAKING WAVES FROM A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WEDNESDAY DEPENDENT ON HOW RAPIDLY SEAS BUILD.
ON THURSDAY, SEAS WILL BE ABOUT 2 FEET LOWER AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, THEY WILL STILL BE RATHER ROUGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH 4-6 FT SEAS STILL MOSTLY AS A SOUTH SWELL
WITH A FAIRLY LONG PERIOD OF AROUND 9 SECONDS. SO ALTHOUGH SEAS
WILL BE A BIT CALMER, CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST COULD BE
HAZARDOUS FOR PEOPLE RECREATING NEAR THE SHORE. ALSO, THE
WEATHER THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE A BIT NICER THAN WEDNESDAY, AND
THIS WILL BRING MORE PEOPLE OUTSIDE AND IN POTENTIAL HARM'S
WAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN MONDAY/TUESDAY,
BRINGING SOME WETTING RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
QUIET, DRY WEATHER FROM THURSDAY TO SUNDAY WITH A WARMING TREND.
THEN MONDAY/TUESDAY, MOST MODELS BRING WET WEATHER AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. EXACT TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN, BUT IN
GENERAL, MODELS FAVOR RAIN AT SOME POINT MONDAY/TUESDAY, WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOO.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...INITIALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, LOWERING TO MVFR
THEN IFR/LIFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS -RA AND BR
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. PROB30 FOR TSRA WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VSBYS
AT KBGR AND KBHB BETWEEN 03Z AND 07Z. S TO SE WINDS GENERALLY 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. LLWS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z
AND 04Z ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH S TO SE WINDS 40 TO 45 KTS AT
2KFT.
WEDNESDAY...LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH
LINGERING BR AND VCSH. TEMPO 1/4SM FG AT KBHB BETWEEN 10Z AND
13Z. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON -SHRA WITH PROB30 FOR -TSRA AND CB BETWEEN
18Z AND 23Z ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AND KBGR. S TO SW WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS. LLWS ENDING BY 11Z-12Z NORTH AND
15Z SOUTH. NORTHERN TERMINALS AND KBGR IMPROVING TO VFR LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING, THEN WITH ANY PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS.
THURSDAY - SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WIND GRADUALLY BECOMING S ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS, EXCEPT W 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
RAIN WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHOWERS
ALONG WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS RELAX TO 15 KTS OR LESS THURSDAY MORNING, AND WAVE HEIGHTS
5-8 FT EARLY THURSDAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY FRIDAY. LITTLE OR NO
MARINE FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY TO SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...TF/CN/JS
AVIATION...TF/CN/JS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page