009
FXUS61 KCAR 230000
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
800 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8:00PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE FRONT PASSING OVER BANGOR NOTED BY THE FAA WEBCAMS.
LAST FEW IMAGES OF GOES-E SHOWS THE FRONT VERY NICELY. THE
FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY NOW.
REMAINING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS ACROSS FAR EASTERN AROOSTOOK
AND MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS
THE CWA. FOG REMAINS ACROSS BAR HARBOR AND COASTAL WASHINGTON
COUNTY AND THIS WILL BREAK/LIFT AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATE BELOW.
- ADDITIONALLY, HAVE ALLOWED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT
8PM. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS TILL 11AM THURSDAY AND COASTAL WATERS OUT TO
25NM TILL 8PM THURSDAY. SEAS 4-7FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS
AND 5-8FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MOSTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
2) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST INTO THIS EVENING.
3) POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, MOSTLY ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET IS HELPING PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IS BEING PROVIDED FROM A DISTURBANCE IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF. THE STRENGTH OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING AND
DE-STABILIZATION WHICH OCCURS WITH GREATER SUN LEADING TO
INCREASED INSTABILITY. CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG, WITH
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE
OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, ENDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. STRONG/DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS,
THOUGH LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS. IN ADDITION, HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN/POOR-DRAINAGE
FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. UNUSUALLY ROUGH
SEAS BY LATE JULY STANDARDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY. THIS IS
USUALLY THE QUIETEST TIME OF YEAR ON THE WATERS, BUT SEAS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 6-9 FEET ARE EXPECTED UP TO THE COASTLINE, WITH A 9-
10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL FROM THE SOUTH. PEOPLE ALONG THE COAST SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IF RECREATING. WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND, AND DURING THIS TIME TEMPERATURES COULD BUILD TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THAT
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH DETAILS ARE
STILL UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...REMAINING -SHRA/VCTS ENDING SOON WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. LOW END VFR NORTH. LIFR AT BHB FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS TILL FROPA. THEN IMPROVING. BCFG/BR POSSIBLE ALL TERMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY AM. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS BECOMING 5-15KT.
THURSDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR EARLY THEN VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NORTH. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS FRIDAY. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL
AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED
EXTENDING INTO THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. PATCHY FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...CN/JS
AVIATION...CN/JS
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