174
FXUS61 KCAR 230539
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
2) POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DRY WEATHER WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE
WEEK, RETURNING A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN TO THE CWA WHICH WILL HELP
CLEAR SKIES AND LEAD TO A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. AS THE CENTER
OF THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA, AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BE GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE BY
TONIGHT, AND CALMER WINDS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SINCE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOT FULLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE ST. JOHN VALLEY.
ANY RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AS THERE WILL NOT
BE VERY MUCH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THESE SHOWERS, AND PWATS
WILL BE RAPIDLY DROPPING AS THE DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA, LIMITING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. BY THIS WEEKEND, DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIFT
JUST ABOVE AVERAGE, REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT,
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND LOWS COULD DIP TO AROUND 50 DOWNEAST,
AND INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ON MONDAY NEXT WEEK, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THAT
COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WHICH COULD PRODUCE A WETTING RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THOUGH DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SOME NEARBY PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE BRIEFLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
AT KHUL AND KBHB, BUT IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. WINDY, WITH SW TO W WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR. S/SW WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS MORNING AT AROUND 5 TO 9 FT, ALONG
WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH 9 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD THAT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY TONIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/SM
AVIATION...AES/SM
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