215
FXUS61 KCAR 080159
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
959 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
10 PM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT. PINPRICK
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BANGOR REGION THIS
EVENING LIKELY IN THETA-E AXES. AS S/WV FROM NEW ENGLAND MOVES
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS IN THE MORNING OVER DOWNEAST AREAS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
WHERE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST. HAVE BUMPED POPS TO
SLGT/LOCHC AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
SUNDAY. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
2) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BEING SUNDAY. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY STORMS COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE DOWNEAST
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE
THREAT FOR STORMS SHIFTING NORTHWARDS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FUNNELS
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO ALIGN WITH
1,500 - 2,000 J/KG OF CAPE AND AND PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION.
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MOIST, WITH CLASSIC LONG AND SKINNY CAPE
THROUGHOUT MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. PWAT VALUES
AROUND 1.5-1.75, WHICH IS ROUGHLY IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
PWATS BASED ON SOUNDING ARCHIVES. STORM MOTIONS COULD BE SLOW
WITH THESE STORMS, AND IF ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS DO DEVELOP WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS, THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ROUGHLY 1.5 - 2 IN THE NORTH, AND 2-3
DOWNEAST. CURRENTLY, LOOKING AT MAYBE 12 AN INCH OF RAIN, BUT
AREAS WITH CONVECTION COULD SO HIGHER TOTALS. SHEAR IS WEAK,
HOWEVER, AND COLD FRONT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE VERY STRONG.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY.
ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS, SO COULD JUST BE SOME BRIEF ISOLATED STORMS BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE (<25%) FOR IFR AT KBHB/COASTAL
TERMINALS SHOULD MARINE LOW STRATUS AND FOG PUSH ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SATURDAY: CIGS TRENDING DOWN TOWARDS MVFR THROUGH THE DAY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT ANY TERMINAL. LIGHT S
WINDS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR LATE OUTSIDE OF ANY PATCHY FOG. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS W/SW AT 5-10KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. MVFR OR LOWER IN POSSIBLE FOG. WINDS FROM
THE W AT 5KTS.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS, OTHERWISE VFR. SW/W WINDS,
GUSTING TO 15-20KTS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND ANY STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS W AT 5-10KTS.
MARINE
SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
AROUND 2-4 FT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WINDS SHIFT S SUNDAY, AND SW MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB/21
AVIATION...AES/ASB/21
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