117
FXUS61 KCAR 082346
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
746 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
745 PM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME COULD BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY. STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
2) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME COULD BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS MAY
BE SLOW MOVING WITH LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW, AND AS PWATS
SIT AROUND 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES, HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN ANY AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE ON SUNDAY, AND COULD BRING
SYNOPTIC LEVEL FORCING THAT KICKS OFF SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE A MARGINAL
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER, AS 30 KTS OF
SHEAR COULD HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE
GREATEST THREAT OUT OF THESE STORMS WILL BE THAT OF CONTINUED
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT, AND IN
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK.
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR 500-1,000J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE, SOME
SHEAR MAYBE 30-40KTS, BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY
SEEMS TO BE WEAK AS WELL. PWATS GENERALLY IN THE 1.25-1.5
RANGE. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, SO COULD JUST BE SOME BRIEF ISOLATED
STORMS BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT...TRENDING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT IN LOW CIGS INLAND
AND POSSIBLE FOG AT KBHB/KBGR AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF SHOWERS AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
SUNDAY...RETURN TO VFR DURING THE DAY, ASIDE FROM DIPS TO
MVFR/IFR CIGS IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON STORMS, OTHERWISE VFR.
W/SW WINDS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W 5-10 KT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS W/SW AT 5-10KTS.
MARINE
WINDS ON THE WATERS OUT TO 60 NM SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1NM OR LESS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB/21
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