164
FXUS61 KCAR 091149
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
749 AM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8 AM: UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS.
- INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SOME COULD BE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
2) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SOME COULD BE
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS
MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT SOURCES OF LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION, STARTING AROUND
MIDDAY ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER WITH QUEBEC AND ENDING AROUND
6-7 PM ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER WITH NEW BRUNSWICK.
THE STRONGEST STORMS APPEAR MORE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A
GNR-MLT LINE, WHERE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM
1500-2500 J/KG, SOUTH OF THAT LINE CAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM
500-1500 J/KG AND CLOSE TO 0 NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO THE
MARINE LAYER. THE BULK SHEAR IS MORE UNIFORM, WITH VALUES OF
25-35 KT. THERE IS ALSO PROGGED AROUND 1000-1400 J/KG OF
DOWNDRAFT CAPE. THE LATTER, COUPLED WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 11-12K ACROSS THE NORTH AND 12-14K FURTHER S, AND WITH
FAIRLY UNI- DIRECTIONAL WINDS, YIELDS THE MAIN THREAT BEING
FROM STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORM MODE SHOULD BE
BOWING CLUSTERS, WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS MAINLY AHEAD OF THOSE
CLUSTERS. WITH CORFRIDI-VECTORS SHOWING STORM MOTION OF
15-20KT, EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5-1.75", ABSENT
TRAINING, THE FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED FROM YESTERDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH REMAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. LOOKING
AT POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE, 30-40 KT OF
SHEAR, BUT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SEEMS
TO BE WEAK AS WELL. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, SO COULD JUST BE SOME BRIEF
ISOLATED STORMS BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. PWATS GENERALLY IN THE
1.25-1.5 RANGE, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY: EARLY IFR/LIFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OUT, AND IFR
AT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID MORNING AS FOG
DISSIPATES. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD LOWER
CIGS BACK TOWARDS MVFR/IFR ONCE MORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SW AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT KBHB. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY: VFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY
PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR STORM IS FROM KHUL ON NORTH. WNW-NW WINDS G15KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
BECOMING W 5-10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT KBHB/KBGR OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS. WINDS W/SW AT 5-10 KT.
MARINE
WINDS SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OVER THE WATERS OUT
TO 60NM THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1NM OR LESS IS LIKELY OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/JMM
AVIATION...AES/PM/JMM
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