168
FXUS61 KCAR 091808
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADDED MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR SMOKE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEHIND FROPA
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
2) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SMOKE
POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE. STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
TODAY, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE 18Z KCAR SOUNDING INDICATES CAPE HAS SURGED
OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SUPPORTING TCU AND
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO FAR.
HOWEVER, LIMITED SHEAR IS EVIDENT, AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FAIRLY ORDINARY AND THOUGH THEY ARE NOT COLLAPSING RIGHT AWAY,
THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO GROW INTO MUCH MORE.
STILL, WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES, THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR
ANY GUSTY WINDS OR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
SMOKE POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN ROUNDS OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MOVE TO THE NORTH THIS WEEK, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDER POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AREA WIDE MONDAY NIGHT, AND IN THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK. LOOKING
AT POTENTIAL FOR 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND 25
TO 35 KTS OF SHEAR. WITH A PERSISTENTLY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND PWATS OFTEN EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND COMBINED WITH WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
HOWEVER, ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THROUGH
PEAK HEATING HOURS COULD RETURN THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE
FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND DOWN
THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. HRRR AND RAP SMOKE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE SMOKE IN OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON, AND COULD SLIGHTLY LIMIT VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT-MONDAY: VFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR IN ANY PASSING
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AT KBHB/COASTAL TERMINALS IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS LATE
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IS FROM KHUL ON
NORTH. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING SW 5 TO 10
KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT COULD
SLIGHTLY REDUCE VIS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS WELL, BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT IS UNLIKELY TO SEE VIS FALL BELOW 6 SM.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING W 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS. WINDS W/SW AT 5-10 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OVER THE WATERS OUT
TO 60NM THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1NM OR LESS IS LIKELY OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SHOWERS FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES
AVIATION...AES
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