707
FXUS61 KCAR 100632
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
232 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
2) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
3) A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC DOWN INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THE HRRR AND RAP
SMOKE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS COULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE SMOKE IN OUR AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
THIS COULD BE NOTICEABLE WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE
VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES CROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES TODAY, LIFTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND FOLLOWED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT BY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES MAINLY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THEN PUSHES THROUGH LATER TUESDAY.
THE STRONGEST OF THESE SHORTWAVES PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT, THIS
WILL BRING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
MAINE, WITH CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY LIMITED MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH CAPE THIS AFTERNOON OF ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY STRONG STORMS. TONIGHT, SHOWALTER INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 0 AND NO CAPE, EXPECT MAINLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION, HOWEVER WITH SOME LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WERE A FEW SURFACE BASED STORMS.
ONCE AGAIN NO STRONG STORMS EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY DO GET CAPES UP TO 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTH,
WITH MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF A 100+ KT UPPER JET. THIS COUPLED WITH 30-35KT OF
BULK SHEAR COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH POSSIBLY SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.25-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH AND
1.5-1.75 INCHES ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO OUR
AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A SOAKING RAIN BASED ON
WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS SET UP. STILL UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
GUIDANCE IS EXPRESSING SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT THE NORTH HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN AROUND 30%. AROUND 30-35
KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW 1000-1500
J/KG. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
STORM THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER RIVER FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING AT KPQI AND KHUL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, CONFIDENCE IN
ITS OCCURRENCE AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO PLACE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THEN BECOME W-WSW AT 6-10KT BY MID-
LATE THIS MORNING. A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT KBGR/KBHB AROUND
MIDDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT AGAIN THIS
EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION,
OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR, EXCEPT AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, WHERE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. NW WINDS
G15KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WINDS W/SW AT 5-10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LINGERING MVFR, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORMS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
THE WATERS OUT TO 60NM SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE
COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SEAS PEAK
AT 5 TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/SM
AVIATION...PM/SM
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