433
FXUS61 KCAR 101803
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, PENDING HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAKS MOVE THROUGH
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SURFACE
SMOKE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
2) A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO USHER IN
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT, WITH BRIEF RIDGES PROVIDING ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE THAT THIS SMOKE COULD PUSH TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD
CLEAR THE AREA OUT ONCE MORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
SOAKING RAIN BASED ON WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS SET UP. STILL
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS GUIDANCE IS EXPRESSING SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT THE NORTH HAS THE
GREATEST CHANCE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN
AROUND 30%. AROUND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY,
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND STORM THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT: MOSTLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS SEEING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITHIN RAIN SHOWERS.
W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY: KBGR/KBHB AND COASTAL TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE DAY,
WHILE NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY BEGIN MVFR BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING
TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. NW WINDS
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WINDS W/SW AT 5-10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LINGERING MVFR, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORMS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
THE WATERS OUT TO 60NM SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE
COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SEAS PEAK
AT 5 TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/ARL
AVIATION...AES/ARL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page