543
FXUS61 KCAR 110151
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
951 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
- INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ON ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. SURFACE
SMOKE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
2) A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. A FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.
THE PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO USHER IN
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT, WITH BRIEF RIDGES PROVIDING ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE THAT THIS SMOKE COULD PUSH TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING PRIOR TO THE NEXT FRONT WHICH COULD
CLEAR THE AREA OUT ONCE MORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WAVE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A
SOAKING RAIN BASED ON WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS SET UP. STILL
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS GUIDANCE IS EXPRESSING SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT THE NORTH HAS THE
GREATEST CHANCE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST 0.5" OF RAIN
AROUND 30%. AROUND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY,
ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS SHOW 1000-1500 J/KG. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND STORM THREAT.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERNIGHT: VFR/MVFR LATE THIS EVENING, THEN VFR/MVFR OCCASIONAL
LIFR. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
EVENING, THEN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY: VFR/MVFR EARLY, THEN GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS EARLY. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH, ISOLATED/SCATTERED DOWNEAST, DURING THE AFTERNOON.
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
WINDS W/SW AT 5-10 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: LINGERING MVFR, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN SHOWERS OR ISOLATED T-STORMS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
THE WATERS OUT TO 60NM SHOULD SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE
COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY. SEAS PEAK
AT 5 TO 6 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/ARL/CN
AVIATION...AES/ARL/CN
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