753
FXUS61 KCAR 111803
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ISOLATED POPS FOR DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS TODAY BUT LIMITED THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
2) A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEEK
MAY PRODUCE A STRONG STORM OR TWO. RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO
WHERE CONVECTION FORMS, ALLOWING FOR SOME WORSENING OF ONGOING
DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD HELP CONTINUE TO
DRIVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE
SHOWERS AS MODELS ARE SHOWING POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A
RESULT OF A MID-LEVEL INVERSION GENERATED BY LAST NIGHTS MCS
THAT CROSSED THE REGION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON SHOWERS AND
ANY STORMS DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE OF THE LONGFELLOW MTNS DUE TO
THE POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN LATE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWER IN THE BANGOR REGION TO ALONG
THE AIRLINE (ROUTE 9).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR LATE WEEK MAY PRODUCE A STRONG STORM OR TWO. RAINFALL WILL
BE LIMITED TO WHERE CONVECTION FORMS, ALLOWING FOR SOME
WORSENING OF ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ON THURSDAY THE LARGE 500MB HIGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO
PUSH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE SAME TIME A TROF
BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING THRU THE CWA DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON SBCAPE BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR >30KTS, STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS MAY BRING STRONG STORMS
TO THE AREA WITH DECENT DYNAMICS WORKING INTO THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING OF THE
TROF AND COLD FRONT BUT EXPECTING SHOWERS INTO THE NIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS PROGGED TO MOVE THRU DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE COLD POOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS. PWATS ARE PRETTY MEAGER,
RANGING FROM 1-1.50 INCHES, HIGHEST OVER DOWNEAST SO NOT SEEING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT.
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN LIMITED PRECIPITATION IN MOST
LOCATIONS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORSENING THE ONGOING
DRY/DROUGHT CONDITIONS. D0-D1 CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE
CWA ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG
WITH GROUNDWATER WELLS RAPIDLY FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TO LOW
END NORMAL CONDITIONS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WILL RESULT IN WORSENING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF THE DROUGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR, WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
POSSIBLE -TSRA THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT W WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY---MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW WINDS 5-15KTS,
BECOMING NW 5-15KTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20KTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ON ALL WATERS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WITH WIND GUSTS 15
KTS OR LESS.
WINDS REMAIN AOB 25KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING IN CAA FRIDAY NIGHT. WATERS FROM 25-60NM WILL SEE
GUSTS OVER 25KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FEET INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD 5FT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS FROM
25-60NM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...ARL
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