026
FXUS61 KCAR 130033
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
833 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY,
THE MOST POTENT OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD OF WHICH WILL BE ON THURSDAY.
SHORT INSTABILITY PROFILES TODAY SHOULD LIMIT LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL BUT DEEPER INSTABILITY THURSDAY SHOULD FAVOR MORE
LIGHTNING. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG, 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF UP TO 30 KTS, AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MEANS A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
FORM CLUSTERS. THE MAIN THREAT IN ANY STRONG STORM WOULD BE
GUSTY WINDS. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE STORMS MEANS THE AREA
IS NOT LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL THAT COULD
HELP WITH THE DROUGHT.
BY 00Z FRIDAY, THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE
WITH UPR TROF BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO CANADA AND PRECIP
WINDING DOWN THRU MIDNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE H5 TROF CROSSING THE AREA THE RAIN
WILL HAVE COME TO AN END.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN
THE ONGOING DRY/DROUGHT CONDITIONS. D0-D1 CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE STREAMFLOWS
ACROSS THE CWA ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ALONG WITH GROUNDWATER WELLS RAPIDLY FALLING TO BELOW
NORMAL TO LOW END NORMAL CONDITIONS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN WORSENING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF THE DROUGHT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY
FOG LATE. OTHERWISE, VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLE IFR, IN SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED STORM. W WINDS 5KTS, BECOMING NW 5-15KTS ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS LATE. LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SW 5KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THURSDAY ON ALL WATERS. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WITH WIND GUSTS 15 KTS
OR LESS. WINDS REMAIN AOB 25KTS AND SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...ASB/JS/CN
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