539
FXUS61 KCAR 130958
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
558 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
6 AM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF S/WV WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE CWA THRU DAYBREAK. LATEST HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON
CURRENT LOCATION AND SHOWS COMPLEX DROPPING INTO SRN NH WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER JUST BRUSHING BANGOR AND THE MDI AREA AFTER 12Z.
AFTER INITIAL WAVE THIS MORNING BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN
AREAS SEVERAL WAVES WILL BE DROPPING THRU THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE STORMS ARE LACKING WITH CAPES
RANGING FROM 500-800 J/KG AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES RANGE FROM 15KTS OVER THE NORTH TO 30KTS DOWNEAST. PW
VALUES ONLY INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTY
STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL NOT A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN
THE ONGOING DRY/DROUGHT CONDITIONS. D0-D1 CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. MUCH OF THE STREAMFLOWS
ACROSS THE CWA ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ALONG WITH GROUNDWATER WELLS RAPIDLY FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL TO LOW
END NORMAL CONDITIONS. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL
RESULT IN WORSENING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF THE DROUGHT.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS MOVE INTO TERMINALS LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND HAVE CONTINUED PROB30
GROUPS FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z-23Z. SW WINDS 5-10KTS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN. WNW 5-10KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY. LIGHT
WINDS BECOME SSW 5KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. S WINDS
5-10 KTS BECOMING W 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ON ALL WATERS. SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT WITH WIND GUSTS
15 KTS OR LESS. SOUTH WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 25KTS OVER
WATERS FROM 25-60NM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO AROUND 4FT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/JMM
AVIATION...21/JMM
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