440
FXUS61 KCAR 131753
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
153 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM ANY OF
THESE STORMS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
2) FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
ANY OF THESE STORMS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING FOUND WITHIN THE STRONGEST OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO LOWER FREEZING LEVELS FOUND TODAY.
SHEAR LEVELS REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KTS, WHICH IS
PREVENTING FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THESE STORMS. THAT SAID, WITH
25 KTS OF SHEAR IN THE NORTH, THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE THAT
STORMS COULD ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL
THIS EVENING, OR GROW TALL ENOUGH TO COLLAPSE WITH GUSTY WINDS
40 TO 50 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MAY ONLY LIFT INTO THE 70S, AND SKIES
COULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, CLOUD
COVER MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THIS SYSTEM COULD SLOW UPON APPROACH, DELAYING THE ONSET OF
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT, BUT IF
THE TROUGH DEEPENS MORE AND REACHES FURTHER INTO THE GULF, THERE
COULD BE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TONIGHT...BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING, TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. NW WINDS
INCREASING 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS, DECREASING
OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER SKC. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
EARLY MORNING. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR UNDER SKC. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS: BRIEF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, WITH STRONGER GUSTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
OUTER WATERS: HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS
BELOW 4 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES
AVIATION...AES
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