956
FXUS61 KCAR 300954
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
554 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 6 AM UPDATE WITH THE 12Z TAFS
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BRINGING
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
2) SYSTEM BRINGS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CAMS
FORECAST REFLECTIVITY SUGGEST THAT THERE COULD BE A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT, SUCH THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE ALONG WITH THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION AT THE SAME TIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
FRONT PROCEEDS SOUTHWARDS THROUGH THE CWA. THOUGH FORECAST 0-6
KM SHEAR IS QUITE HIGH, APPROACHING 50 KTS FROM THE NAMNEST,
FORECAST CAPE IS ON THE LOWER END, AROUND 500 J/KG FROM THE
NAMNEST, AND THERE WILL NOT BE ANY DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THAT SAID, THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL LIKELY
BE ORDINARY IN STRUCTURE. LINES OF TRAINING STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES THEMSELVES AS
THEY CROSS THE AREA, AND THIS WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE AT ANY
STRONGER ORGANIZATION FOR ENHANCED THREATS, BUT EVEN THEN, AT
MOST IT APPEARS MAYBE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BASED
ON THE LACK OF EXTENSIVE SEVERE PARAMETERS BEING MET AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SYSTEM BRINGS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MID-TO-LATE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEEK, AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA. CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGIONS ON
TUESDAY, AS SOME MODELS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW IN CANADA.
FOR RAIN MID-TO-LATE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS CURRENTLY IN
A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA. THE
GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON THURSDAY, AND STAYING OUT IN
THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF, HOWEVER, HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP
MUCH EARLIER ON TUESDAY, OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, AND SLOWLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH EITHER SOLUTION,
ANTICIPATING HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE DOWNEAST REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, SEVERE POTENTIAL, AND RAIN AMOUNTS, WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...VFR EARLY. VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR, DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. W TO WSW WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS, SHIFTING NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT
LATE.
TONIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. VFR LATE.
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MVFR AT KBGR/KBHB IN RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS. SE WINDS AT
5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY, AND
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS W/SW MONDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING SE TUESDAY, AND E/NE WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB
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