598
FXUS61 KCAR 301804
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
204 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON TO FOLLOW
RADAR AND HI-RES CAMS TRENDS.
- LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH WOODS TONIGHT TO MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST NEAR ESTCOURT STATION ONLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
2) SYSTEM BRINGS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA IN A FEW DIFFERENT AREAS
BUT HAVE NOT GOTTEN TALL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. A FEW
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN QUEBEC AND WILL PIVOT SE INTO
MAINE OVER THE NEXT 1-2HRS. THOUGH 0-6 KM SHEAR IS QUITE HIGH,
APPROACHING 40-50 KT, CAPE IS ON THE LOWER END, AROUND 300 J/KG
FROM THE 18Z CAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING. RAP MODELING SUGGESTING UP
TO 500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE WILL NOT BE ANY DEEP
LAYER OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. 18Z SOUNDING FROM CAR SHOWS A
VERY DRY AND WARMER MID LEVEL LAYER THAT IS LIMITING STORMS FROM
DEVELOPING TALL ENOUGH. HOWEVER, EXPECTING STORMS TO GET TALL
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. 18Z CAR UPPER AIR DOES SHOW A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (INVERTED V SIGNATURE) UP TO 780MB. LINES
OF TRAINING STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THEMSELVES AS THEY CROSS THE AREA, AND THIS WOULD BE
THE BEST CHANCE AT ANY STRONGER ORGANIZATION FOR ENHANCED
THREATS, BUT EVEN THEN, AT MOST IT APPEARS MAYBE SOME GUSTY
WINDS WITH THESE STORMS BASED ON THE LACK OF EXTENSIVE SEVERE
PARAMETERS BEING MET AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SYSTEM BRINGS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MID-TO-LATE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEEK, AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA. CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGIONS ON
TUESDAY, AS SOME MODELS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW IN CANADA.
FOR RAIN MID-TO-LATE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS CURRENTLY IN
A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA. THE
GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON THURSDAY, AND STAYING OUT IN
THE ATLANTIC. THE 00-06Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, HAS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP MUCH EARLIER ON TUESDAY, OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, AND
SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH EITHER SOLUTION,
ANTICIPATING HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE DOWNEAST REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, SEVERE POTENTIAL, AND RAIN AMOUNTS, WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
REST OF TODAY...VFR, OCCASIONAL IFR, INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. W TO WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS, SHIFTING NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. VFR TURNING SKC
LATE. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MVFR AT KBGR/KBHB IN RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS. SE
WINDS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY AT 5-10 KTS SHIFTS N ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY, AND
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS W/SW MONDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING SE TUESDAY, AND E/NE WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...JS
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