459
FXUS61 KCAR 302328
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
730 PM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
- LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH WOODS TONIGHT TO MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE COLDER VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING IS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST NEAR ESTCOURT STATION ONLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SYSTEM BRINGS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SYSTEM BRINGS ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS MID-TO-LATE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY WEEK, AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CANADA. CHANCE FOR SOME STRAY
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGIONS ON
TUESDAY, AS SOME MODELS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING OFF OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED PARENT LOW IN CANADA.
FOR RAIN MID-TO-LATE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS IS CURRENTLY IN
A SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE PARENT LOW IN CANADA. THE
GFS HAS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP ON THURSDAY, AND STAYING OUT IN
THE ATLANTIC. THE 00-06Z ECMWF, HOWEVER, HAS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOP MUCH EARLIER ON TUESDAY, OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, AND
SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH EITHER SOLUTION,
ANTICIPATING HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE DOWNEAST REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, SEVERE POTENTIAL, AND RAIN AMOUNTS, WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE ONCE MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
ENVIRONMENT FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR TURNING SKC LATE. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, AND SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MVFR AT KBGR/KBHB IN RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS. SE
WINDS WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY AT 5-10 KTS SHIFTS N ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY, AND
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS W/SW MONDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING SE TUESDAY, AND E/NE WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...21/JS
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