652
FXUS61 KCAR 310946
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
546 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 545AM: INCREASED SKY COVER SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY IN THE FAR
NORTH.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A SOAKING RAIN ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME DROUGHT
RELIEF IS POSSIBLE, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF IS POSSIBLE, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR
THURSDAY. THE SETUP INVOLVES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION, WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE ONSET TIME OF THE RAIN, WITH RAIN MOVING
IN FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY LOOKS QUITE RAINY AREAWIDE, LIKELY
PERSISTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A
STEADY WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND LESS LIKE
SHOWERS/STORMS. BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, STORM TOTAL RAIN HAS A
90 PERCENT CHANCE OF TOPPING 0.10 INCH, A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TOPPING 0.50 INCH, AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TOPPING 1 INCH.
THERE IS EVEN ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES. HARD TO
PINPOINT WHETHER DOWNEAST OR THE NORTH WILL GET THE HIGHER
TOTALS, AS RIGHT NOW PROBABILITIES ARE ABOUT THE SAME NORTH VS
SOUTH.
WHETHER THE RAIN PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS A BIT OF
A WILD CARD. MOST MODELS KICK THE LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST
AND DRY US OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. HOWEVER, A NOTABLE
MINORITY OF MODELS HAVE RAIN STICKING AROUND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EVEN SATURDAY WITH A SLOWER EXIT TO THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IT EVEN STALLING ALONG WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE.
ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE BREEZY WITH THIS UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM,
WE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY TREE
DAMAGE.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. CHANCE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS,
AND A S/SE BREEZE AT KBGR/KBHB.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR LATE. SE WIND
INCREASING TO 10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER COMES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS SE AROUND 10 KTS, BECOMING NE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME WINDS TOWARD 15-20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY BGR/BHB.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
NW WINDS TODAY, BECOMING SW TONIGHT. E WINDS TUESDAY.
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
FRIDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS
AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT WINDS AT SOME POINT IN THIS
TIME RANGE, AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES. SEAS LOOK TO PEAK
SOMEWHERE 4-6 FT. ALSO, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS OVER THE
WATERS THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF
AVIATION...ASB/TF
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