263
FXUS61 KCAR 311735
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
135 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ONSET OF RAINFALL HAS MOVED LATER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME DROUGHT
RELIEF IS POSSIBLE, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF IS POSSIBLE, BUT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR
THURSDAY. THE SETUP INVOLVES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AMPLIFYING OVER THE REGION, WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN NOW NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A STEADY, WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
THURSDAY. A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH EXISTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FURTHER SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE ONSHORE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAINY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS RATHER THAN THE STEADY RAIN ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR. CHANCE FOR SOME VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY AT PQI AND
HUL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS,
AND A S/SE BREEZE AT KBGR/KBHB.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR, 20% CHANCE OF MVFR LATE. SE WIND 5 TO 10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER COMES LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS SE AROUND 10 KTS, BECOMING N
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SOME WIND GUSTS TOWARD 20-25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR HAS SHOWERS GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT, POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR LATER IN THE DAY. N WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS SATURDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS AROUND SCA CONDITIONS THURSDAY, DECREASING
BELOW CRITERIA AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS PEAK AT 4 TO 6 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ON ALL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM
AVIATION...SM
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