512
FXUS61 KCAR 031758
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
158 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. SOME DROUGHT
RELIEF IS OCCURRING, THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. FOG
TONIGHT AS WELL. SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. SOME DROUGHT
RELIEF IS OCCURRING, THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. FOG
TONIGHT AS WELL. SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS OF EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THE HEAVIER RAIN HAS MOSTLY
MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, BUT WE STILL HAVE INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE FOR MOST PLACES, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN (LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH FOR
MOST PLACES TONIGHT). ANOTHER CONCERN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND LOTS OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOG.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT
DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST. PROBABILITY OF FOG IS ABOUT THE SAME
FOR NORTH VS SOUTH.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS BY MIDDAY AS WE WILL BE UNDER UNSTABLE NW FLOW ON THE
WEST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. CAN'T RULE
OUT A BIT OF THUNDER MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG OR SEVERE. STILL ABUNDANT
CLOUDCOVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT SOME
WITH ANY FOG DISSIPATING BY MIDDAY.
THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS VERTICALLY STACK ACROSS THE MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE MARITIMES SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE A SOAKING RAIN TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH AREAS OF UP TO AROUND AN INCH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
REST OF TODAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY FOG. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, DIMINISHING AROUND 22Z.
TONIGHT...IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. AREAS OF FOG. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
LIGHT. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING VFR/MVFR. HIGHER
PROBABILITY OF VFR BGR/BHB, WITH FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL LIKELY ONLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. N/NE WIND
INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR, WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR BELOW VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
N WINDS 5-10 KTS, THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. N WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
BECOMING NW AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS MONDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING VFR TUESDAY. N/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
SE WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 4 FT THIS AFTERNOON DECREASE
TONIGHT, THOUGH FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY, W WINDS TO 10
KTS AND SEAS 1-3 FT. FOG SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, REACHING MARGINAL SCA
CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS PEAK AT 4 TO 7 FT
ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE BELOW CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY MORNING. BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/SM
AVIATION...TF/SM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page