691
FXUS61 KCAR 041819
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
219 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HAVE LIMITED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE MOOSEHEAD REGION SOUTHEASTWARD TO HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE THE
BEST DAYTIME HEATING HAS TAKEN PLACE.
- ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
EASTPORT TO SCHOODIC POINT OUT 25NM FROM 5PM SATURDAY TILL
10AM SUNDAY.
- INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE LIGHT, SO THE DAY WONT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT.
2) RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT, SO THE DAY WONT BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A TROF EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE CWA, WHILE AN
UPPER LOW IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION REST OF TODAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA. COULD ALSO HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. THE SURFACE/UPPER LOWS VERTICALLY
STACK ACROSS THE MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SLOWING THE
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE
MARITIMES SYSTEM WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT MOSTLY ISOLATED
AT NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING WEAKENS SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE
STACKED LOW TRACK NE. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BUT POTENTIALLY SOME UPPER
30S IN THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON MONDAY AM. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY AM INTO TUESDAY PM WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MUCH OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TO A MORE
ROBUST 500MB SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE WILL END UP WITH GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
REST OF TODAY...VFR EXCEPT MVFR AT BHB. THERE IS FEW-SCT MVFR
CIGS AT ALL OTHER SITES. PROB30 FOR -TSRA AT BGR AND BHB. WINDS
340-020 AT 5-10KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20KT.
TONIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR
EARLY THEN MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT. VCSH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. N
WINDS 5-10KT, BECOMING N-NE 10-15KT.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR BECOMING MVFR/VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. N WINDS 5-10KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
BECOMING NW AROUND 5 TO 10KT MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING VFR TUESDAY. W-NW
WINDS 5-10KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE DAY. S WINDS 5-15KT.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
25-60NM WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SEE N-NNE WIND GUSTS 25-30KT BY
SUNRISE AND SOLIDLY GUSTING TO 30KT BY MIDDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT OVER WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT TO SCHOODIC
POINT OUT 25NM FROM 5PM SATURDAY TILL 10AM SUNDAY. DURING THIS
PERIOD N WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT EXPECTED.
SEAS PEAK AT 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS 25-60NM AND 2 TO 4
FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 25NM SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING. BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...JS
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