253
FXUS61 KCAR 220013
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
813 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
2) A COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST TONIGHT, TUESDAY,
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER ONTARIO BUILDS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER THE
NORTH. ANTICIPATING FOR LOW LYING VALLEYS TO DECOUPLE ACROSS
THE NORTH, WITH CLEAR SKIES, HIGH RH, AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS COULD REDUCE FOG CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. PATCHY/AREAS OF
FROST ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES COULD FALL
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHERN LOW LYING AND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST
MAINE LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATER THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THE TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND WHETHER RAIN
WILL REACH MAINE. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME
GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE. OTHERWISE,
VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...VFR NORTH. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
N WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN UNDER 25KTS FOR INTRA-COASTAL AND
OUTER WATERS. WATERS 25-60NM WILL SEE GUSTS AROUND 25KTS
TONIGHT, BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. GALES
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. BUILDING SEAS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/JS
AVIATION...ASB/JS/CN
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