567
FXUS61 KCAR 230547
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
147 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGING RAIN AND WIND TO DOWNEAST MAINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
2) A COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
1036MB SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO SIT ACRS THE NORTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, LEADING TO FROST AND RIVER
VALLEY FOG. GIVEN A MODIFYING AIRMASS TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS LOW AS THIS MORNING BUT NORTHERN AREAS COULD DEFINITELY
DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST
MAINE LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATER THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THE TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
CLOSE THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS.
GENERAL TREND CURRENTLY IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN STAYING OVER THE WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MAY SEE IFR VSBYS AT HUL AND PQI
BETWEEN 07-11Z. LIGHT N WINDS.
TODAY-THURSDAY...VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AGAIN AT HUL AND
PQI TONIGHT. NNE WINDS 5 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG, OTHERWISE VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR NORTH. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS, BECOMING NE SUNDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, NORTHEAST/NORTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT
KBGR, AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT KBHB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER THIS TIME
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH SEAS FROM 2-3 FEET OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO GALES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND
AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. GALES POSSIBLE IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY,
WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OUTER WATERS 11FT TO 13FT, AND
5FT TO 9FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/SM/CM
AVIATION...21/SM/CM
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