424
FXUS61 KCAR 231739
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS PENOBSCOT COUNTY AND NORTH. HAVE
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS DOWNEAST FROM THE COASTAL LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT INLAND FROM THE COAST AND NORTH.
2) A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM ONTARIO. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT,
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT, FROST, AND RIVER
VALLEY FOG. A MODIFYING AIR MASS COULD LIMIT HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT, BUT LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE THE DOWNEAST COAST. NORTHERN AREAS OF MAINE WILL LIKELY
REACH FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM
THURSDAY. WHILE NOT AS COLD AS TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST AND FOG, MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS AS
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST
MAINE LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THE TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW
CLOSE THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS.
GENERAL TREND CURRENTLY IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN STAYING OVER THE WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION.
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW IS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE DELAYS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
BLOCKING HIGH REMAINS RESOLUTE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE LOW WILL PASS
TO THE COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH. REGARDLESS, NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS.
GENERAL TREND CURRENTLY IS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN STAYING OVER THE WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY-THURSDAY...VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OCCASIONALLY
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES AGAIN TONIGHT. NNE WINDS 5 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG, OTHERWISE VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY - MONDAY...VFR NORTH. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH LIKELY
RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, N/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NE SUNDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT KBGR, AND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT KBHB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
NE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER THIS TIME THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SEAS FROM 2-3 FEET OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO GALES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
AND AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8AM ON FRIDAY IN OUTER WATERS
AND FROM 5PM IN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
8PM SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE AROUND 11FT
TO 16FT, AND AROUND 7FT TO 12FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MEZ015.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...ASB/MB/JS
AVIATION...ASB/MB/JS
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