109
FXUS61 KCAR 232055
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
455 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- HAVE EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORY TO INCLUDE INTERIOR HANCOCK
AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS DOWNEAST FROM THE COASTAL LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT INLAND FROM THE COAST AND NORTH.
2) A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE INTERIOR HANCOCK
AND CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTIES. SURFACE 1040MB HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON, WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM ONTARIO. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD
NIGHT, FROST, AND RIVER VALLEY FOG. A MODIFYING AIR MASS COULD
LIMIT HOW LOW TEMPERATURES FALL TONIGHT, BUT LOWS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE DOWNEAST COAST. NORTHERN AREAS OF MAINE
WILL LIKELY REACH FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING. WHILE NOT AS COLD
AS TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FROST
AND FOG, MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS AS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST
MAINE LATE THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE
DELAYS THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE BLOCKING HIGH
REMAINS RESOLUTE OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE LOW WILL PASS TO THE
COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH. REGARDLESS, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS. GENERAL TREND CURRENTLY IS THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARDS DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE, WITH MAJORITY OF THE RAIN STAYING OVER THE WATERS
AND THE DOWNEAST REGION.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY-THURSDAY...VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE PATCHY FOG OCCASIONALLY
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES AGAIN TONIGHT. NNE WINDS 5 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY PATCHY LATE NIGHT
FOG, OTHERWISE VFR. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY - MONDAY...VFR NORTH. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH LIKELY
RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, N/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NE SUNDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT KBGR, AND 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT KBHB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
NE WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER THIS TIME THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS
RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH SEAS FROM 2-3 FEET OVER THE INTRACOASTAL AND
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO GALES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS
AND AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A
GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8AM ON FRIDAY IN OUTER WATERS
AND FROM 5PM IN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
8PM SUNDAY NIGHT. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERS. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL BE AROUND 11FT
TO 16FT, AND AROUND 7FT TO 12FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MEZ015>017.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...ASB/JS/MB/CN
AVIATION...ASB/JS/MB
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