012
FXUS61 KCAR 240707
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
307 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED DEW POINTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, OVERALL DROPPING
MINIMUM RHS TO AROUND 40 PERCENT THANKS TO WELL MODELED DRY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES UP TO 850MB.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MARINE IMPACTS.
- GALE WATCHES UPGRADED TO GALE WARNINGS, ISSUED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR
COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COASTAL LOW WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST
MAINE LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION LATE THIS WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
QUEBEC. THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE OCEAN LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN
WITH BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE
RAIN ENTERING THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY OF HOW CLOSE THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
PASS TO THE COAST WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT
REACHES INLAND. REGARDLESS, NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY OVER THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FORMS. GENERAL TREND CURRENTLY IS
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STAY SOUTH OF THE
REGION DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE, WITH MAJORITY OF THE RAIN
STAYING OVER THE WATERS AND THE DOWNEAST REGION.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...BEFORE 12Z POSSIBLE BR/FG TO REDUCE VSBY AT A FEW
TERMS. BUT MAINLY SKC. TODAY EXPECTING SKC WITH LIGHT N WINDS.
TONIGHT...SKC BECOMING HIGH CIGS AT BHB BUT SKC ALL OTHER SITES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BR/FG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. HIGH CIGS. NE WINDS 5-10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT
FOR BGR AND BHB.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE AT BHB. CHANCE OF RAIN
DEVELOPING LATE AT BHB. NE WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT
FOR BGR AND BHB. AROOSTOOK TERMS EXPECT N-NNE WINDS 5-15KT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY...VFR NORTH. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH LIKELY
RAIN. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, N/NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NE SUNDAY. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, N/NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT KBGR, AND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
AT KBHB SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY
NIGHT BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KT THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY FOR
THE WATERS 25-60NM OFFSHORE. WINDS BELOW SCA FOR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY SWELLS BUILDING TO 4-6FT
OVER THE WATERS 25-60NM OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2-4FT SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND 1-3FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 40
KNOTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2AM ON FRIDAY IN OUTER WATERS AND FROM 11AM
IN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 8PM SUNDAY
NIGHT. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE AROUND 11FT TO 16FT, AND AROUND 7FT TO 12FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE LARGE WAVES COULD POSE A RIP
CURRENT RISK AND IMPACT PEOPLE ON ROCK OUTCROPS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ080-
081.
DISCUSSION...JS/JMM/CM
AVIATION...JS/JMM/CM
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