926
FXUS61 KCAR 241853
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
253 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WINDS.
- STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN RAIN TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND
PERIODS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND
PERIODS OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG NOREASTER IMPACTING OUR AREA
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE
WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE NOREASTER WITH THE
CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
IMPACTS THIS FAR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF THE STORM:
PERIODS OF RAIN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAR GREATER DOWNEAST THAN
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE STORM, WITH RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT MORE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, AND PERSISTING
OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN. MOST LIKELY
DOWNEAST UP TO BANGOR WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT TOTALS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH TO
TWO INCHES, AS THERE IS A TON OF UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE
HIGHER TOTALS, WE WOULD NOT EXPECT FLOODING. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THE NOREASTER FINALLY LIFTS
NORTH AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE, AT WHICH POINT RAIN
CHANCES FINALLY INCREASE OVER THE WHOLE AREA. THAT SAID, NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING HEAVY.
GUSTY WINDS...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DECREASE
A BIT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU
GO, WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND ONLY 20 MPH IN NORTHERN MAINE
THIS WEEKEND, BUT 25-35 MPH BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE IMPACTS FROM THE WIND OTHER THAN MAYBE A VERY
ISOLATED OUTAGE DOWNEAST.
HIGH SURF...SEAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL BE FAIRLY ROUGH WITH 5-9 FT
SEAS, MUCH OF IT AS A LONGER PERIOD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SWELL. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING, THOUGH WAVES
BREAKING ON THE ROCKS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ANY ONLOOKERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE HAZARDOUS FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
THAN COASTAL WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS SLOWLY EASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, THEN NE WINDS
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH 5-15 KTS.
SATURDAY - MONDAY...VFR NORTH, EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES. ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS, N/NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, N/NE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO GALES LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WINDS PEAKING AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 40
KNOTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM 2AM ON FRIDAY IN OUTER WATERS AND FROM 11AM
IN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 8PM SUNDAY
NIGHT. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE AROUND 11FT TO 16FT, AND AROUND 7FT TO 12FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE LARGE WAVES COULD POSE A RIP
CURRENT RISK AND IMPACT PEOPLE ON ROCK OUTCROPS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ080-
081.
DISCUSSION...TF
AVIATION...ARL/TF
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