479
FXUS61 KCAR 250520
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD BUT CONFIDENCE STILL
LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND
PERIODS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND
PERIODS OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG NOREASTER IMPACTING OUR AREA
FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE
WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE NOREASTER WITH THE
CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
IMPACTS THIS FAR NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF THE STORM:
PERIODS OF RAIN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAR GREATER DOWNEAST THAN
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE STORM, WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY,
AND PERSISTING OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS STILL
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE RAIN. MOST
LIKELY DOWNEAST UP TO BANGOR WILL SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BUT TOTALS COULD BE ANYWHERE FROM ONE QUARTER INCH
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAR
NORTH THE RAIN WILL EXTENT, AS THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY. EVEN WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS, WE WOULD NOT EXPECT
FLOODING. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THE
NOREASTER FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE,
AT WHICH POINT RAIN CHANCES FINALLY INCREASE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING HEAVY.
GUSTY WINDS...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DECREASE
A BIT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU
GO, WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND ONLY 20 MPH IN NORTHERN MAINE
THIS WEEKEND, BUT 25-35 MPH BANGOR AND DOWNEAST. WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE IMPACTS FROM THE WIND OTHER THAN MAYBE A VERY
ISOLATED OUTAGE DOWNEAST.
HIGH SURF...SEAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL BE FAIRLY ROUGH WITH 5-9 FT
SEAS, MUCH OF IT AS A LONGER PERIOD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SWELL. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING, THOUGH WAVES
BREAKING ON THE ROCKS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ANY ONLOOKERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE HAZARDOUS FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
THAN COASTAL WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS SLOWLY EASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS MORNING BEFORE 12Z...SKC/FEW-SCT250 CIGS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.
TODAY...VFR WITH FEW-SCT250 CIGS. N-NE WINDS 5-10KT NORTH AND NE
5-15KT SOUTHERN TERMS.
TONIGHT...VFR. HIGH CIGS. N-NNE 5KT AT NORTHERN TERMS. FOR
BHB/BGR EXPECTING NE-ENE WINDS 5-10KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY...VFR NORTH, EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY.
VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST WITH RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES. ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS, N/NE WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, N/NE
WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-35 KNOTS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO GALES TONIGHT, WITH WINDS PEAKING
AROUND 45 KNOTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THE
COASTAL WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 2AM ON FRIDAY IN OUTER WATERS AND FROM 11AM IN
COASTAL WATERS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 8PM SUNDAY
NIGHT. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, WHERE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
OUTER WATERS WILL BE AROUND 11FT TO 16FT, AND AROUND 7FT TO 12FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE LARGE WAVES COULD POSE A RIP
CURRENT RISK AND IMPACT PEOPLE ON ROCK OUTCROPS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...JMM/CM
AVIATION...JS
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