161
FXUS61 KCAR 260020
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
820 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8 PM UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION WITH ISSUANCE OF 00Z TAFS.
CAPPED WIND GUSTS ON INTRACOASTALS TO BELOW 35 KTS THROUGH THE
STORM WITH THIS UPDATE AS WELL.
- TRENDED LOWER ON RAIN AND WINDS. FOR WIND, DELAYED THE START
OF THE GALE WARNING OVER THE WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG NOREASTER TO IMPACT OUR AREA
FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE
WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE NOREASTER WITH THE
CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
IMPACTS IN NORTHERN REGIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF THE STORM:
PERIODS OF RAIN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAR GREATER DOWNEAST THAN
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE STORM, WITH RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND PERSISTING OFF AND ON THROUGH
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN TUESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS ADJUSTED THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD
REACH THE DOWNEAST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXTENDING
ACROSS BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN
FALL TOTALS HAVE COALESCED SOMEWHAT IN WITH THE UPDATED TRACK.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES AND 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO
1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST. MUCH OF THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY TO OCCUR. EVEN WITH THESE TOTALS, WE WOULD NOT
EXPECT FLOODING. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, A MUCH WEAKER VERSION
OF THE NOREASTER FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE, AT WHICH POINT RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS FINALLY
INCREASE OVER THE WHOLE AREA. NORTHERN MAINE COULD FINALLY SEE
SOME RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MAYBE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH.
GUSTY WINDS...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY BY SATURDAY AND
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DECREASE A BIT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO BUT WILL TOP OUT AROUND 25 MPH
ACROSS BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE IMPACTS FROM THE WIND OTHER
THAN MAYBE A VERY ISOLATED OUTAGE DOWNEAST.
HIGH SURF...SEAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL BE FAIRLY ROUGH WITH 4-8
FT SEAS, MUCH OF IT AS A LONGER PERIOD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SWELL. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING, THOUGH WAVES
BREAKING ON THE ROCKS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ANY ONLOOKERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE HAZARDOUS FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
THAN COASTAL WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS SLOWLY EASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
00Z UPDATE: DELAYED TIMING OF PEAK WINDS AND LOWERED CIGS, NOW
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
TONIGHT...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT
WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND NE 5 TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAIN MOVING IN
LATE TO COASTAL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST
WITH RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES. ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS, NE WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS. ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS, NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS,
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. NE
WIND 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, PEAKING
AROUND 40KTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 35KTS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. A
GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT IN THE OUTER WATERS, EXTENDING TO
THE COASTAL WATERS BY 8AM SATURDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH 8PM
SUNDAY. THE UPDATED STORM TRACK HAS LOWERED THE RISK OF GALES IN
THE INTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED WITH OUTER WATERS
AROUND 8-13FT AND 4-8FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE LARGE
WAVES COULD POSE A RIP CURRENT RISK AND IMPACT PEOPLE ON ROCK
OUTCROPS. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL/MB
AVIATION...AES/ASB/TF/ARL/MB
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