120
FXUS61 KCAR 260451
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-EXTENDED SCA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AS WINDS AND WAVES LINGER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG NOREASTER TO IMPACT OUR AREA
FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE
WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE NOREASTER WITH THE
CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
IMPACTS IN NORTHERN REGIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF THE STORM:
PERIODS OF RAIN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAR GREATER DOWNEAST THAN
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE STORM, WITH RAIN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATE
TODAY, AND PERSISTING OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
EVEN TUESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
THOUGHT. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN SHOULD REACH THE DOWNEAST
COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, EXTENDING ACROSS BANGOR AND THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY TONIGHT. RAIN FALL TOTALS HAVE COALESCED
SOMEWHAT IN WITH THE UPDATED TRACK. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES AND 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BANGOR
REGION WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
MUCH OF THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO OCCUR.
EVEN WITH THESE TOTALS, WE WOULD NOT EXPECT FLOODING. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THE NOREASTER FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE, AT WHICH POINT
RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS FINALLY INCREASE OVER THE WHOLE AREA.
NORTHERN MAINE COULD FINALLY SEE SOME RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH MAYBE
AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH.
GUSTY WINDS...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DECREASE A BIT INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO BUT WILL TOP OUT AROUND 25 MPH
ACROSS BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG THE COAST. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE IMPACTS FROM THE WIND OTHER
THAN MAYBE A VERY ISOLATED OUTAGE DOWNEAST.
HIGH SURF...SEAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL BE FAIRLY ROUGH WITH 4-8
FT SEAS, MUCH OF IT AS A LONGER PERIOD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SWELL. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING, THOUGH WAVES
BREAKING ON THE ROCKS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ANY ONLOOKERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE HAZARDOUS FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
THAN COASTAL WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS SLOWLY EASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR CROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND NE 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAIN MOVING IN LATE
TO COASTAL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST
WITH RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES. ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS, NE WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS. ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS, NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS,
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. NE
WIND 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
40KTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 35KTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT IN THE OUTER WATERS, EXTENDING TO THE COASTAL
WATERS BY 8AM THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH 8PM SUNDAY.
THE UPDATED STORM TRACK HAS LOWERED THE RISK OF GALES IN THE
INTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED WITH OUTER WATERS
AROUND 8-13FT AND 4-8FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE LARGE
WAVES COULD POSE A RIP CURRENT RISK AND IMPACT PEOPLE ON ROCK
OUTCROPS. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...JMM/CM
AVIATION...JMM/CM
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