893
FXUS61 KCAR 261730
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
130 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL TOTALS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, HIGH
SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A NOREASTER WILL IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS, HIGH SURF, AND PERIODS OF RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A STRONG NOREASTER TO IMPACT OUR AREA
FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE
WILL BE ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE NOREASTER WITH THE
CENTER STAYING SOUTH OF MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
IMPACTS IN NORTHERN REGIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THE VARIOUS
COMPONENTS OF THE STORM:
PERIODS OF RAIN...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAR GREATER DOWNEAST THAN
NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE STORM, WITH RAIN PERSISTING OFF AND ON
INTO TUESDAY. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RESOLUTE IN THE
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF
RAIN SHOULD REACH THE DOWNEAST COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
EXTENDING ACROSS BANGOR AND THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE NOW BEGUN TO PAINT A MUCH CLEARER PICTURE
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75
INCHES AND 1.25 INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION AND
DOWNEAST WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE COAST.
MUCH OF THIS WILL WAIT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO OCCUR,
BUT EVEN WITH THESE TOTALS, WE WOULD NOT EXPECT FLOODING. SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, A MUCH WEAKER VERSION OF THE NOREASTER
FINALLY LIFTS NORTH AND TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE, AT WHICH
POINT RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS FINALLY INCREASE OVER THE WHOLE
AREA. NORTHERN MAINE COULD FINALLY SEE SOME RAIN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH
MAYBE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH.
GUSTY WINDS...WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO BUT WILL TOP OUT AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS
BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE IMPACTS FROM THE WIND OTHER THAN
MAYBE A VERY ISOLATED OUTAGE DOWNEAST.
HIGH SURF...SEAS NEAR THE SHORE WILL BE FAIRLY ROUGH WITH 4-8
FT SEAS, MUCH OF IT AS A LONGER PERIOD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SWELL. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING, THOUGH WAVES
BREAKING ON THE ROCKS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR ANY ONLOOKERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE HAZARDOUS FOR COASTAL HANCOCK
THAN COASTAL WASHINGTON. CONDITIONS SLOWLY EASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR CROSS ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS, AND NE 5 TO 10 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAIN MOVING IN LATE
TO COASTAL TERMINALS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY MORNING...VFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, VFR/MVFR
DOWNEAST WITH RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES. ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS,
NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS. ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS, NE WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS, GUSTING TO 25KTS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY MVFR AREAWIDE
WITH RAIN LIKELY. POSSIBLE IFR. NE WIND 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, PEAKING AROUND
40KTS IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 35KTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A GALE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BOTH THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS
AND PERSISTING THROUGH 8PM SUNDAY. THE UPDATED STORM TRACK HAS
LOWERED THE RISK OF GALES IN THE INTER COASTAL WATERS, BUT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED WITH OUTER WATERS AROUND 8-13FT AND 4-8FT IN THE
COASTAL WATERS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL
HANCOCK COUNTY WHERE LARGE WAVES COULD POSE A RIP CURRENT RISK
AND IMPACT PEOPLE ON ROCK OUTCROPS. WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY
DECREASE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, AND QUIET
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL/MB
AVIATION...TF/ARL/MB
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