259
FXUS61 KCAR 110918
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
518 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TODAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN
DOWNEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, THEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTH LATER MONDAY.
2) AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS TODAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN DOWNEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, THEN
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATER MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE EXITING HIGH WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS TRACK
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD CLIP DOWNEAST
AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MOSTLY
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. HOWEVER, DEPENDENT ON THE ONSET TIME, JUST ENOUGH COLD
AIR COULD EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
TO ALSO SUPPORT AN INTERVAL OF LIGHT SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY, THEN CROSSES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...VFR. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUST UP
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS LATE.
TONIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLE LATE DOWNEAST.
OTHERWISE, VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE, POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR.
RAIN. RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED SNOW EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTERMOST WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ016-017-029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...CN
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