394
FXUS61 KCAR 121127
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
727 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:27AM UPDATE...12Z TAF UPDATE SEE THE AVIATION SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS.
MAIN PACKAGE UPDATE
- HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.
- HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY TODAY. SHOWERS WILL THEN
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY.
3) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
HOWEVER, DEPENDENT ON THE ONSET TIME, JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
EXIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO
ALSO SUPPORT AN INTERVAL OF LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET LATER MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE, OR NO, SNOW OR SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS. THE LOW APPROACHES TUESDAY, THEN CROSSES THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. RAIN TOTALS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE AND A QUARTER
INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DOWNEAST EARLY TODAY. SHOWERS
WILL THEN ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL THEN
ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT
DOES APPEAR VERY LIKELY MOST PLACES WILL GET AT LEAST 0.25
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME PLACES EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES.
GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE BOTH POSSIBILITIES DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WITH CHANCES OF BOTH INCREASING THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE INCREASING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTH WOODS AREA. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS
STARTED PICKING UP ON THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
12Z TAF UPDATE...
TODAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR OCCASIONAL IFR WITH
SHOWERS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, MVFR/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN. VFR/MVFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST/NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...VFR EARLY. VFR/MVFR LATE WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET NORTH LATE.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST/NORTHEAST 5
TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR EARLY, LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR.
RAIN DEVELOPING. RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACROSS NORTHERN ARES DURING THE MORNING. EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. RAIN. RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. EAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. FOR KBHB AND KBGR,
WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL START EAST,
TURNING COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO BE NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH. WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED/DIRECTION.
MARINE
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE ALSO ISSUED
A GALE WATCH FOR THE OUTERMOST WATERS TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTERMOST WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANZ080-
081.
DISCUSSION...CN/JS/JMM
AVIATION...CN/JS/JMM
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