323
FXUS61 KCAR 130952
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A RAIN AND SNOW SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH
- STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES, DIPPING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TODAY AND PERSISTING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
OVER MOOSEHEAD AND NORTH WOODS AREAS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TODAY AND
PERSISTING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE OVER MOOSEHEAD AND NORTH WOODS AREAS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OUR THINKING FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT. EARLY
THIS (TUESDAY) MORNING, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS HAS WORKED IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. TODAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN
FROM THE WEST, WITH PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST
FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL
BE DRY BUT COOL ALONG THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER, BUT
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10-11AM FROM BAR
HARBOR TO BANGOR TO MOOSEHEAD LAKE. COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE
STRONG OVER THE AREA, AND A COOL RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS WITH COLD AIR DAMMING STRONG HOLDING INTO THE EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FROM MOOSEHEAD LAKE NORTH TO
THE NORTH WOODS AND MAYBE TO THE ST JOHN VALLEY FOR SOME SNOW,
OR RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW, FROM ONSET TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY MARGINAL AND THINK THAT WHERE SNOW
DOES FALL, IT WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WOODS AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AROUND KATAHDIN COULD SEE A FEW INCHES, BUT MOST OTHER PLACES
THAT DO SEE FLAKES WILL HAVE LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION. ANTICIPATE
AREAS FROM CARIBOU SOUTH TO HOULTON AND SOUTH ALONG I-95 AND
OVER IN DOWNEAST WILL BE ALL RAIN, ALBEIT A COLD RAIN. WARMING
ALOFT IS STRONG ENOUGH BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT THAT EVERYWHERE WILL GO
OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. RAIN CONTINUES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH, AND SOME SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTH, WHILE DOWNEAST DRIES OUT. STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH 2/3 INCH TO
1.25 INCH, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS BEING EITHER ALONG THE COAST
OR IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOOSEHEAD LAKE REGION. THIS WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION FOR FLOODING, THOUGH. WINDS ARE NOT
A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN
AREAS AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50 TO 60% CHANCE
OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TRACK THE SYSTEM
TAKES. IF THE STORM TRACKS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THEN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE, BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD
WHICH WILL RESULT IN MORE RAIN. ALTERNATIVELY, IF THE STORM
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THEN A MORE EASTERLY
WIND WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TRANSPORT, ALLOWING FOR
MORE SNOWFALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SPLIT OVER WHICH
SOLUTION WILL PREVAIL. HOWEVER, SOLUTIONS WITH THE STORM
TRACKING NORTH FAVOR A STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH AS IT DEPARTS WILL
RESULT IN SOME QUITE GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 30 MPH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK, WINDS ARE
STILL LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND IT WILL RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE 20S AND TEENS.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY...VFR UNTIL ABOUT 21Z FOR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS, WHEN
RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ARRIVES AND MVFR DEVELOPS. GNR/BGR/BHB
WILL SEE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ROUGHLY AT 14Z, WITH RAIN FOR
BGR/BHB BUT SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW AT GNR. GENERALLY MVFR AT BHB/BGR
WITH THE RAIN, THOUGH IFR COULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. E/SE
WINDS 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH. EAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. FOR KBHB AND KBGR, WINDS 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE EAST. LLWS FOR MOST SITES.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE NORTH. SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS.
MARINE
E/SE WINDS AROUND 25 KTS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, AND COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE LATER TONIGHT...SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. SEAS 4-8 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SWITCH TO
W ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPORARILY DROP TO AROUND 15-20 KTS.
SCA WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. GALES POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY, LIKELY REACHING GALE CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS REACH UP TO 13 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND 10 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...TF/SM
AVIATION...TF/SM
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