691
FXUS61 KCAR 132338
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
738 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:38PM UPDATE...00Z TAF UPDATE. SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PERSISTING TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER MOOSEHEAD AND NORTH
WOODS AREAS TONIGHT. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. CHANCE
OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND
STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PERSISTING TONIGHT,
WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION REMAINING POSSIBLE OVER
MOOSEHEAD AND NORTH WOODS AREAS TONIGHT. THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
1022 SFC HIGH SITTING OVER ERN NEW BRUNSWICK WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WITH WARM FRONT NOSING INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND HAS RESULTED
IN CHILLY AIR REMAINING LOCKED IN OVER CWA. 18Z RAOB FROM KCAR HAS
LOWEST 5KFT STILL DRY WITH BULK OF THE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
SNOW IS FALLING IN THE MILLINOCKET AREA AND UP INTO THE NORTH WOODS
AS OF 17Z. EXPECT THAT AIRMASS WILL SATURATE DOWN OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS WITH A COLD RAIN LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTH WOODS AND ST. JOHN
VALLEY WHERE LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AROUND AN INCH OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 0.70-0.80 INCHES OVER
THE FAR NORTH AND AROUND 1 INCH OVER CENTRAL AREAS. THE DOWNEAST
COAST FORECAST TO SEE BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES AS TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVES ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. CANNOT
RULE OUT NUISANCE AND SMALL PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS
WITH DRAINS BEING CLOGGED WITH LEAVES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN
AREAS AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, THEN MOVE WEST TOWARDS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SPLIT BETWEEN A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN TRACK. SPECIFICALLY, THE
GEFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE NORTHERN TRACK. IF THE
SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE DOWNEAST COAST AND GULF OF MAINE
HAPPENS, THEN WE CAN EXPECT A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR TRANSPORT, ALLOWING FOR MORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SNOW DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS, ONCE THE SYSTEM
EXITS ON SATURDAY, THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL TIGHTEN
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CAUSING NW WINDS TO INCREASE. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLY UP TO 35 MPH.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
NORTHERN TERMS (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL):
TONIGHT: MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VSBYS WILL DROP
TO 2 TO 5SM IN -RA AND BR, WITH -SN ALSO OCCURRING AT KFVE. CIGS
WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT TO OVC005 TO OVC008. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE E/SE AT 5 TO 10 KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT DEVELOPING.
LLWS WILL IMPACT ALL NORTHERN TERMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, GENERALLY AROUND WS020/13040KT TO 14045KT.
TOMORROW: VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR (P6SM) AFTER 15Z AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS TO VCSH. HOWEVER, CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN
IN THE IFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES, RANGING FROM OVC005 TO BKN010
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT 5 TO 10 KT,
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT AT KFVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERN TERMS (KBGR, KBHB):
TONIGHT: IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH -RA, BR, AND CIGS RANGING FROM BKN007 TO OVC012, ALONG
WITH LLWS OF WS020/13040KT. CONDITIONS WILL CRASH TO LIFR
BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AS VSBYS DROP TO 1SM DOWN TO 1/4SM IN FG,
AND CIGS LOWER TO OVC003 AND VV002. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE E/SE AT 5 TO 10 KT.
TOMORROW: RAPID IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AFTER 15Z AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE W AND NW AT 5 TO 10 KT, EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO 10
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS WILL CLEAR TO
VFR (P6SM). CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR (BKN012) BY 18Z, SCATTERING
OUT TO VFR (SCT025) AROUND 23Z.
BEYOND...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15KTS, GUSTING 25-30KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE NORTH. SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS.
SUNDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS 10-20 KTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 4-6 FEET
AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KTS. EASTERN WATERS, SPECIFICALLY ZONES 50
AND 80 WILL GUST ABOVE 34KTS, THUS HAVE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING
BETWEEN 00-08Z. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 12Z BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS INCREASE ABOVE SCA LEVELS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SCA WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY THURSDAY ON
THE COASTAL WATERS. GALES POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY ON THE OUTER
WATERS. BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASE FRIDAY, LIKELY REACHING GALE CRITERIA ON ALL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS REACH UP TO 13 FT ON
THE OUTER WATERS AND 10 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-080.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...21/ARL/JS
AVIATION...21/ARL/JS
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