288
FXUS61 KCAR 140642
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
242 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
2) CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, THEN MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE GRADUALLY
CONVERGING ON A TRACK THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE BUT THERE
ARE STILL GROUPINGS OF MEMBERS WANTING TO TAKE THE TRACK NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE TRACK THROUGH THE AREA IS RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN AREAS AS WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR FROM
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WILL PROBABLY
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT A FEW AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
MIGHT REACH AN INCH OR POSSIBLY TWO. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE TERRAIN DEPENDENT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING THE
GREATER AMOUNTS. SOME SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EAST ALONG
THE MAINE COAST. THERE IS STILL INTERMITTENT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE
AREA. ANY SNOW IN THE NORTH HAS TURNED TO RAIN AS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FIRST DOWNEAST AND BANGOR REGION, WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN ENDING BY DAWN. THAT SAID, IT WILL STILL BE
RATHER GLOOMY AND CLOUDY DOWNEAST AND BANGOR UNTIL PERHAPS MID-
AFTERNOON, WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS TO THE EAST AND
SOME DRIER AIR STARTS WORKING IN. FURTHER NORTH, DRYING/CLEARING
WILL BE SLOWER, WITH INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOME DRYING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT SOME OFF
AND ON LIGHT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. ALSO,
REMAINING CLOUDY TODAY IN THE NORTH WITH LOW CLOUDS, AND
TEMPERATURES STAYING COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S IN THE
NORTH.
ALL AREAS WILL BE DRY LATE TONIGHT, THURSDAY, AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS RATHER BREEZY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST GUSTING 25-35 MPH, BUT POWER OUTAGES NOT
ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY...AS OF 7Z, IFR/LIFR AREAWIDE, WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH
ABOUT 17Z. AFTER 17Z, SOME IMPROVEMENT AT BGR/BHB WITH VFR
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE 19-23Z. E WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SHIFTING TO
THE NW LATE.
TONIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT MVFR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS BEFORE ROUGHLY
6Z. NW WINDS 10-15KTS, GUSTING AROUND 25 KTS MAINLY AFTER 6Z.
THURSDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MVFR OVER
THE NORTH SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS 10-20 KTS.
MARINE
SE WINDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ARE NEAR OR JUST BELOW GALE, BUT
THESE WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 10-15 KTS AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE COAST. NW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, AND MAY REACH GALE OVER THE OUTER WATERS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS EARLY TODAY OF 5-8 FT SUBSIDE
TO 3-6 FT LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
BELOW SCA WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ON THE COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS, THEN WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BECOMING GALES ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY. SEAS PEAK AT 11
TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-080.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...TF/SM
AVIATION...TF/SM
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