317
FXUS61 KCAR 142331
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
731 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:31PM UPDATE...00Z TAF UPDATE. SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, THEN MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE GRADUALLY
CONVERGING ON A TRACK THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE STATE BUT THERE
ARE STILL GROUPINGS OF MEMBERS WANTING TO TAKE THE TRACK NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE TRACK THROUGH THE AREA IS RELATIVELY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN AREAS AS WINDS WILL HAVE
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR FROM
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WILL PROBABLY
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT A FEW AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
MIGHT REACH AN INCH OR POSSIBLY TWO. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE TERRAIN DEPENDENT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING THE
GREATER AMOUNTS. SOME SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE 20S. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
NORTHERN TERMINALS (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL):
TONIGHT: MVFR CIGS EARLY (BRIEF IFR AT KFVE WITH BKN007)
GRADUALLY LIFT OVERNIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING EARLY.
P6SM VSBY THROUGHOUT. NW WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KT INCREASE LATE,
GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 25 KT. LLWS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH 2,000 FT
WINDS OUT OF THE NW AT 40 TO 45 KT.
TOMORROW: LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY 11Z-13Z, BECOMING
FEW150 BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT, EASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY EVENING. LLWS ENDS
MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KBGR, KBHB):
TONIGHT: VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 3,500 FT SCATTERING OUT LATE.
P6SM VSBY THROUGHOUT. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
GUSTING UP TO 20 KT. LLWS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH 2,000 FT WINDS
OUT OF THE NW AT 35 TO 45 KT.
TOMORROW: VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS. NW WINDS 10
TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KT BY
EVENING. LLWS ENDS DURING THE MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW WINDS 5KTS BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE NORTH. MVFR OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY, INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KTS OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS 10-20 KTS.
MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY FOR COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET. INTRACOASTAL
LIKELY TO SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BETWEEN 07 AND 14Z THURSDAY.
OUTER WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 07-14Z THU BEFORE
DIMINISHING. CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
BELOW SCA WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ON THE COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS, THEN WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BECOMING GALES ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY. SEAS PEAK AT 11
TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ052.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...21/ARL/JS/CM
AVIATION...21/ARL/JS/CM
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