474
FXUS61 KCAR 151737
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
137 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCA ISSUED FOR ANZ050-052 FRI MORNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WILL PHASE WITH S/WV
LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING AND DEEPEN SFC LOW
MOVING TWD THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING
OVER THE CWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BRINGING
RADN/L COOLING WITH MINS DIPPING INTO THE 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST.
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO COMMENCE OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO
BRING PCPN INTO WRN ZONES AROUND 12Z, OVERSPREADING REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WILL MOVE
IN CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE NORTH AT ONSET.
ACCUMS UP TO ONE INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A DUSTING TO
1/2 INCH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK IN THE MORNING. AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON INCREASING LLJ TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE
CWA WILL WARM AND SWITCH SNOW OVER TO RAIN OVER ALL LOCATIONS BY
19Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX WITH SLEET AS IT DOES SO BUT SFC
TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY RISE WITH ICING NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S BY THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE CAA MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST AND DROPS
SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT
TEMPS MAY BE DOWN INTO THE U20S OVER THE NORTH WOODS AND AROUND 40
FOR DOWNEAST. PRECIP WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT LATE AND WILL
LIKELY END AS RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LLJ KICKS IN. AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT WINDS
TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-
35MPH OVERNIGHT, HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. RAPIDLY FALLING
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE NORTH BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM GENERALLY STAYS TO OUR
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AND LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15KTS GUSTING 20-25 KTS.
TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW MIX AROOSTOOK TERMINALS AROUND 14Z
BEFORE QUICKLY SWITCHING OVER TO RAIN. MVFR/IFR IN RAIN DOWNEAST
TERMINALS. SSE WINDS 5-15KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
30K-35TS.
SATURDAY...MVFR OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. NW
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS 10 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT – MONDAY… VFR. S. 5-10 KT WINDS
MONDAY, S WINDS 10-15 KT. GUSTING 20-25 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY… VFR. S. LIGHT WINDS. VFR TUESDAY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT NW WIND 5-10 KT.
MARINE
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FROM MID-
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS INCREASE TO 4-8 FEET
FRIDAY EVENING IN SWRLY SWELL. OUTER WATERS MAY APPROACH GALES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW IN OCCURRENCE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS. GALES LOOK MORE LIKELY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY. SEAS PEAK AT 11 TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY.
SATURDAY WAVES 5-8 FT FOR COASTAL AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS. W/SW
WINDS 15-20 GUSTS S TO SW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT 5-10 KT INNER COASTAL
AND 10-15 KT IN THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS. MONDAY 15-20 KT ON
THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
SW TO NW WIND 5-10 KT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...21/ARL/CM
AVIATION...21/ARL/CM
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