921
FXUS61 KCAR 160644
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
244 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
2) EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH
TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPR MIDWEST WILL PHASE WITH S/WV
LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DEEPEN SFC LOW MOVING TWD
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO ERN CANADA BY DAYBREAK ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW TO COMMENCE OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO
BRING PCPN INTO WRN ZONES AROUND 12Z, OVERSPREADING REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WITHIN 2-3 HOURS. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY PRECIP WILL MOVE
IN CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER THE NORTH AT ONSET.
ACCUMS UP TO ONE INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A DUSTING TO
1/2 INCH POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK THIS MORNING. AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES ON INCREASING LLJ TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE CWA
WILL WARM AND SWITCH SNOW OVER TO RAIN OVER ALL LOCATIONS BY
19Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A MIX WITH SLEET AS IT DOES SO BUT SFC
TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY RISE WITH ICING NOT EXPECTED.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S SOUTH AND 40S NORTH BY THE
EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE CAA
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST AND DROPS SOUTH DURING THE COURSE OF
THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK EXPECT THAT TEMPS MAY BE DOWN INTO
THE U20S OVER THE NORTH WOODS AND AROUND 40 FOR DOWNEAST. PRECIP
WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT LATE AND WILL LIKELY END AS RAIN FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTH AND WEST
AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY, WHICH COULD FALL AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON TODAY WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AS LLJ KICKS IN. AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30-35MPH OVERNIGHT, HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.
RAPIDLY FALLING OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS
TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER THE
NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS COULD ALSO CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM GENERALLY STAYS TO OUR
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AND LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL):
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z AS CIGS LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE ONSET OF -SN. EXPECT VSBY TO DROP TO 2-3SM
BY 15Z WITH -SN AND BR. PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO -RA BY
15Z-18Z, WITH CIGS LOWERING TO IFR LEVELS (OVC004-006) AND VSBY
AROUND 4SM. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25
KT. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z-18Z AT 2000 FT WITH S
WINDS AROUND 35-45 KT LASTING THROUGH AROUND 02Z SATURDAY.
BGR: BY 12Z, CIGS LOWER TO BKN060. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 15Z
WITH -RA MOVING IN, DROPPING FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR (OVC005) BY 19Z
WITH VSBY RESTRICTED TO 3SM IN -RA AND BR. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. LLWS WILL BECOME A
FACTOR STARTING AT 19Z AT 2000 FT WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT,
LASTING THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
BHB: -RA BEGINS BY 13Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO BKN060. BY APPROX
16Z, EXPECT MVFR CIGS (OVC015) AND IFR VSBY (3SM) IN -RA, WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SE TO 10-15 KT AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO LIFR/IFR (OVC005 TO OVC004) AND 3SM
VSBY EXPECTED BY 19Z. S WINDS WILL PEAK AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. LLWS WILL DEVELOP BY 19Z AT 2000 FT
WITH S WINDS AROUND 50 KT, LASTING THROUGH AROUND 00Z.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. NW WINDS 10-20KTS GUSTING TO
30K-35TS.
SATURDAY...MVFR OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
OTHERWISE. NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WNW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY... VFR. LIGHT WNW WINDS
MONDAY, BECOMING S WINDS 5-10KT, GUSTING TO 20KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY... VFR. VARIABLE WINDS MONDAY NIGHT, LIGHT
N WINDS TUESDAY.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS FROM MID- MORNING
AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A SCA IN EFFECT FROM 15Z.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4-8 FEET FRIDAY EVENING IN SWRLY SWELL. OUTER
WATERS MAY APPROACH GALES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW IN OCCURRENCE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. GALES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING SATURDAY. SEAS PEAK AT 11 TO
13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FT SATURDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHING
BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMAINING THERE
THROUGH TUESDAY. NW WINDS 15 KTS GUSTING TO 30 KTS ON COASTAL
WATERS, 20-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35KTS ON OUTER WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY. S TO SW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
5-10 KTS ON INTERCOASTAL AND 10-15 KT IN THE COASTAL AND OUTER
WATERS. WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...JMM/MB
AVIATION...JMM/MB
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