800
FXUS61 KCAR 171219
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
819 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS TODAY, COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
2) GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS TODAY, COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ENE. AS OF THIS UPDATE THE COLD FRONT HAS
SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA. FOR SATURDAY, THE REMAINING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD CREATE SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.
ANY SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH WOODS.
IN ADDITION, THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE EXITING
LOW WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUST ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 35 MPH, CREATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES. WINDS WILL RELAX SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, AND FALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND CLOUDS CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE NORTH AND THE 30S DOWN TO THE COAST. LINGERING WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH THE COLD TEMPS TO PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE 20S FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE CROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND WILL
GENERALLY CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. DURING
THIS TIME, SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER,
WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE EXPECT THAT THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WILL GENERALLY BE DRY. AS THE ORIGINAL HIGH SLIDES
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DRY TREND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE, VFR.
ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR WITH VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN PATCHY
FOG. SW/S WINDS 5 - 10 KT SUNDAY. WINDS TURN S/SE SUNDAY NIGHT.
S WINDS 10 - 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS MONDAY.
VARIABLE WINDS UP TO 10 KT MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR. WINDS TURN N 10 - 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT TUESDAY, THEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TUESDAY
NIGHT. N/NE WINDS 5 - 10 KT WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REACH UP TO 25 KT AND WAVES WILL REACH 4-8 FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A NOREASTER
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC ON MONDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED SEAS INTO OUR WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK. SEAS WILL BEGIN
TO GROW ON THE OUTER WATERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY
REACHING BETWEEN 4-8 FT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY THIS
TIME, SEAS BETWEEN 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN COASTAL AND INTO
INNER COASTAL WATERS, PEAKING BETWEEN 6-8 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL THEN DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...JMM/MB
AVIATION...JMM/MB/CN
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