941  
FXUS61 KCLE 280014  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
714 PM EST WED NOV 27 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT MOVES  
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH  
ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
7:00 PM UPDATE...  
INCREASED POPS TO MAKE SURE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST  
AREA HAD PEAK POPS OF 100% AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT THERE  
WILL BE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING A STRIP OF  
WET, SLUSHY SNOW IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS DESCRIBED BELOW.  
INITIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT SETS UP THURSDAY NIGHT MIGHT BE A  
TOUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AS LATEST HI-RES  
MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH, SO ADJUSTED  
POPS, QPF, AND SNOW AMOUNTS ACCORDINGLY. LATEST REGIONAL  
CMC, HRRR, AND NAM NEST ALL HAVE A PRIMARY WEST-EAST ORIENTED  
LAKE EFFECT BAND DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND INTO LAKE  
COUNTY AND NORTHERN GEAUGA. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS  
BAND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD TOWARDS PRIMARILY  
LAKE, ASHTABULA, AND ERIE. THE 18Z HRRR IS ESPECIALLY  
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING A STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND  
QUICKER THAN EXPECTED, SUGGESTING A STRIP OF 6"+ NEAR THE  
COUNTY LINES OF LAKE/GEAUGA/ASHTABULA, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH  
THIS DEVELOPMENT FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO WARNING/ADVISORIES  
TONIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
CYCLONIC WSW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER OUR CWA THROUGH  
TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT  
PLAINS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY. AT THE  
SURFACE, THE ATTENDANT LOW MOVES NE'WARD FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
UNITED STATES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND DEEPENS AMIDST MSLP  
FALLS AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. A RIDGE WILL EXIT E'WARD BEFORE A TROUGH AXIS  
EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES E'WARD ACROSS  
OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS  
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS ARGUABLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN EFFECTIVE  
OCCLUDED FRONT. A COMBINATION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA BEHIND THE  
EFFECTIVE OCCLUDED FRONT AND LIMITED NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW  
LOWS TO REACH MAINLY THE LOWER TO MID 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK  
THANKSGIVING MORNING. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTENING VIA THE WET-  
BULB EFFECT WITH ALLOW PRECIP TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA GENERALLY FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEE HOURS OF  
THANKSGIVING MORNING. AIR TEMPS AND WET-BULB TEMPS AT/NEAR THE  
SURFACE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR PRECIP TYPE. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE  
RAIN, MIXING WITH WET SNOW AT TIMES, ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-90 IN NW PA  
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY I-90 AT THE OH/PA BORDER TO THE  
FINDLAY AREA SINCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM ~9C LAKE ERIE WILL DEVELOP  
EVENTUALLY ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER SOUTH,  
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SNOW THIS EVENING AND WILL LIKELY  
CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS GREATER PRECIP RATES RESULT  
IN A GREATER WET-BULB EFFECT AND APPRECIABLE DYNAMIC COOLING  
ACCOMPANIES THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY  
TO HEAVY AT TIMES AS MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS  
EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED IN A CLOUDY DGZ AT LEAST 0.5 KM THICK AT  
TIMES. WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN ONE INCH. HOWEVER, 1-3" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION  
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS IN THE MANSFIELD AREA AND  
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NW PA. NOTE, A  
SUFFICIENTLY-COLD/MOIST LOW/MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, THE SEEDER-  
FEEDER PROCESS, AND WEAK LAKE-INDUCED CAPE ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW  
PRECIP TO BECOME SLIGHTLY LAKE-ENHANCED OVER AND GENERALLY SOUTH OF  
LAKE ERIE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF THANKSGIVING MORNING.  
 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, PRECEDING RAIN AND/OR WET SNOW, AND  
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH EXIT E'WARD THANKSGIVING MORNING. BEHIND THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FROM VALUES  
NEAR -3C TO NEAR -7C THROUGH THE DAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO LAKE-ENHANCED  
PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO PURE LAKE-EFFECT PRECIP AS LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY-ABUNDANT. HOWEVER, A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE  
INVERSION ACCOMPANYING A NARROW RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,  
BUILDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WILL LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF  
LAKE-INDUCED CAPE AND PRECIP, RESPECTIVELY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 30'S TO MID 40'S. AS MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
BACKS STEADILY FROM N'ERLY TO WNW'ERLY, LAKE-ENHANCED/EFFECT SHOWERS  
WILL SHIFT GENERALLY E'WARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OH AND  
EVENTUALLY BECOME FOCUSED IN/NEAR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF NE OH AND  
NW PA BY SUNSET. TOWARD SUNSET, LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ORIGINATING OVER  
LAKE MICHIGAN MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF NW PA. PRECIP WILL MAINLY FALL  
AS RAIN, BUT WET SNOW MAY MIX-IN AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A  
TRACE.  
 
A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 AM EST FRIDAY TO 7 AM  
EST MONDAY, DECEMBER 2ND FOR LAKE AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES IN OH, AND  
ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN PA. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING  
MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTION AND PLACEMENT OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW  
(LES) DURING MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND PRECLUDED UPGRADING ANY  
PART OF THE WATCH TO A LES WARNING. WILL LET THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT SHIFTS REEVALUATE, BUT CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE  
THAT A SIGNIFICANT AND IMPACTFUL PERIOD OF LES WILL IMPACT MUCH OF  
THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE NARROW RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT EXITS E'WARD THURSDAY  
EVENING AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT  
SURFACE TROUGH OVERSPREADING OUR REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND  
VICINITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE AS 850  
MB TEMPERATURES FALL FURTHER TO NEAR -9C OVER ~9C LAKE ERIE AND OUR  
CWA. THIS CAA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS REACHING THE MID  
20'S TO LOWER 30'S AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AXIS, INCREASING LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A RISING CAPPING  
INVERSION AMIDST MID/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT  
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN LAKE-INDUCED CAPE AND PRECIP  
INTENSITY, RESPECTIVELY. CAA AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND THE WET-  
BULB EFFECT WILL ALLOW LAKE-EFFECT PRECIP TO CHANGE FROM A RAIN/SNOW  
MIX TO ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1-  
2" AT TIMES COURTESY OF STRONG/MAXIMIZED ASCENT IN A CLOUDY DGZ  
ABOUT 1 KM THICK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 2-5" OF FRESH SNOW  
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST-PERSISTENT LES BY  
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE GROWING  
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE-EFFECT SNOWSTORM, THE START OF  
WHICH WILL BE A LONG DURATION EVENT AS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR POURS  
ACROSS NEAR RECORD WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW WILL  
OCCUR IN SEVERAL PERIODS DUE TO SHIFTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND  
FIELDS, AND TIMING THE HEAVIEST PERIODS OF SNOW IS THE BIGGEST  
CHALLENGE.  
 
STARTING OFF FRIDAY, THE AXIS OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY  
DEEPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW  
TAKES UP RESIDENCE AROUND HUDSON BAY. THIS IS A CLASSIC PATTERN FOR  
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP ARCTIC AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES, AND THIS TIME WILL BE NO EXCEPTION AS THE CLOSED LOW  
PINWHEELS AROUND HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN  
AN OVERALL WESTERLY MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, WITH SUBTLE VARIATIONS  
DRIVEN BY SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW, AS WELL  
AS THE LAKE AGGREGATE THERMAL TROUGH. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO  
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
ENHANCED OMEGA (LIFT) THROUGH A DEEP, SATURATED DGZ AS THE SHORTWAVE  
CROSSES FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VERY WELL-ALIGNED 270 DEGREE FLOW AND  
INSTABILITY BECOMING EXTREME (800-900 J/KG) AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS  
RISE TO 15-20 THOUSAND FEET. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE  
FORECAST SOUNDING AND SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN INTENSE SINGLE  
BAND NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR BETWEEN LAKE COUNTY AND ERIE, PA.  
HOWEVER, PLACEMENT OF THE BAND IS UNCERTAIN. THE LATEST HREF  
GUIDANCE HAS SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOWING THE BAND IMPACTING MOST OF LAKE  
AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY BEFORE JOGGING  
NORTHWARD AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY BACKS, WHEREAS  
OTHER GUIDANCE TAKES THE BAND OFFSHORE OF LAKE AND ASHTABULA  
COUNTIES FASTER AND CONFINES THE WORST IMPACTS TO ERIE COUNTY,  
PA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A KNOWN SOUTHWARD BIAS IN MOST HI-RES  
GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE SEASON GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE LAKE  
AGGREGATE TROUGH TO BACK THE FLOW 10-20 DEGREES FROM WHAT THE  
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING, SO WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN THE  
FORECAST FOR ERIE COUNTY, PA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE SNOWFALL  
RATES COULD REACH 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN SUCH A BAND WITH THUNDER  
AND LIGHTNING, SO EVEN IF THE BAND MOVES NORTHWARD FASTER, IT  
WILL STILL BE A ROUGH MORNING ALONG I-90 FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO  
ERIE, PA.  
 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR  
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MORNING SHORTWAVE. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME  
SHEAR COULD WEAKEN THE BAND FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH INSTABILITY SNOW  
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND GIVEN THE LATE NOVEMBER SUN ANGLE BENEATH  
THE COLD POOL ALOFT. INSTABLILTY AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL  
STILL BE OFF THE CHARTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NOT SURE THE BAND  
WILL BE AS INTENSE. NEVERTHELESS, THE MEAN FLOW STILL LOOKS  
265-270, SO EXPECT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE NEAR THE I-90  
CORRIDOR, BUT RATES MAY BE MORE MANAGEABLE. HOW FAR SOUTH THE  
BAND WILL BE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT BE PREPARED FOR SNOWY  
TRAVEL ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY IN ERIE COUNTY, PA.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT  
MOST OF THE SNOWBELT WILL GET A BREAK FROM THE BULK OF THE SNOW AS  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BACKS TO MORE OF A 250 DEGREE FLOW. THIS IS  
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE  
AND OMEGA LOOK TO IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY  
REMAINS EXTREME, SO THE BAND WILL BE STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN AS IT  
MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS COULD PLACE ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL IN ERIE  
COUNTY, PA, BUT THE BAND SHOULD BE ALMOST ENTIRELY OFFSHORE OF OHIO  
BY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. TRIED TO TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT  
OF POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE BAND MAY EVEN BE ENTIRELY OFFSHORE OF ERIE  
COUNTY, PA. KEPT HIGH POPS ALONG THE ERIE LAKESHORE THROUGH SATURDAY  
NIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE  
LOWERED.  
 
GIVEN THE ABOVE DESCRIBED UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE  
BANDS MOVE NORTHWARD, KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH HEADLINES AS  
IS AND WILL WAIT ONE MORE CYCLE TO TRY AND BETTER PINPOINT THE  
MOVEMENT BEFORE MAKING WARNING DECISIONS. THERE WILL ALMOST  
CERTAINLY BE WARNINGS WITH CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS BEING HIGH, BUT  
NEED TO BETTER DEFINE THE TIME WINDOWS AND EXACT LOCATIONS.  
ERIE, COUNTY PA WILL DEFINITELY SEE THE SNOW THE LONGEST AND  
THEREFORE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE  
SOME TOTALS OF AROUND 2 FEET IN NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY BY SATURDAY  
NIGHT, BUT SNOW TOTALS FARTHER WEST INTO NORTHERN ASHTABULA AND  
LAKE COUNTIES REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MOVEMENT OF THE  
BAND. PLEASE FOCUS ON IMPACTS RATHER THAN SPECIFIC AMOUNTS.  
 
THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S FRIDAY AND UPPER 20S/LOW 30S  
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
NIGHTS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE COLD  
CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS  
THE REGION SUNDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR AS 850  
MB TEMPS FALL TO AN AVERAGE OF -12 C THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE  
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE BAND BACK ONSHORE SUNDAY AS  
MORE OF A WNW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND IT. TIMING OF THE SHIFT IS  
UNCERTAIN THIS MANY DAYS OUT, BUT A BURST OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN  
MOST OF THE SNOWBELT SUNDAY, INCLUDING THE CLEVELAND AREA AND PARTS  
OF THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT, SO HAVE ELEVATED POPS. THE WNW FLOW IN  
ITS WAKE, CONTINUED SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW, AND  
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH CONTINUED MODERATE TO  
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL KEEP LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS TO  
MUCH OF THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT, WITH THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT GETTING IN  
ON THE ACTION AT TIMES TOO. HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING TOWARD THE OHIO  
VALLEY WILL TRY TO TAPER THE SNOW SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY, BUT  
CONTINUED WNW FLOW AND FEED OF COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST  
WEAKER SNOW SHOWERS GOING. THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY/MID  
NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
20S/LOW 30S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MODERATING SLIGHTLY INTO THE  
LOW/MID 30S WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ALOFT, CYCLONIC WSW'ERLY TO W'ERLY FLOW AND EMBEDDED  
DISTURBANCES IMPACT OUR REGION THROUGH 18Z/THURS. AT THE  
SURFACE, A RIDGE EXITS E'WARD THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING. A  
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST  
BETWEEN ~00Z/THURS AND ~15Z/THURS AS A LOW MOVES FROM THE  
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN PA AND  
VICINITY. BEHIND THE TROUGH, A RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH-  
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH 18Z/THURS.  
 
OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE IN  
DIRECTION AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE TIME BEING. ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS, OUR REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS  
BECOME NW'ERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN  
~10Z/THURS AND ~17Z/THURS. THESE NW'ERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO  
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.  
 
VFR PERSIST FOR THE TIME BEING AS INITIALLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER, INCREASES, THICKENS, AND LOWERS GENERALLY FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS  
TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA GENERALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST  
BETWEEN ~21Z/WED AND ~08Z/THURS. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE  
BETWEEN VFR AND IFR IN PRECIP, WHICH WILL BE STEADY TO HEAVY AT  
TIMES. POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVY PRECIP.  
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS MAINLY RAIN NORTH OF A ROUGHLY  
KFDY TO KJHW LINE. ELSEWHERE, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR  
CHANGE TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT DAYBREAK THURS.  
WIDESPREAD PRECIP ENDS GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN  
~09Z/THURS AND ~17Z/THURS. HOWEVER, COLDER AIR CROSSING ~49F  
LAKE ERIE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE-EFFECT RAIN  
SHOWERS OVER AND GENERALLY SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE  
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN PERIODIC LAKE-EFFECT PRECIP THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS MONDAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.  
PRECIP TYPE WILL THEN REMAIN SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST  
AND MOST-PERSISTENT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION IS EXPECTED  
TO IMPACT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT IN FAR-NE OH AND NW PA.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
N WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE  
DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVES EAST, TRENDING MORE NW  
BY LATE THURSDAY. SPEEDS WILL STAY IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE UNTIL  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHEN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS  
20-30 KNOTS WINDS AS THE DIRECTION BACKS MORE TO THE W. W WINDS  
OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, SO A LONG  
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES IS POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN WNW AND  
DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,  
SO HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE.  
 
 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING FOR OHZ012-014-089.  
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...JASZKA  
NEAR TERM...JASZKA/SAUNDERS  
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS  
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS  
AVIATION...SAUNDERS  
MARINE...GARUCKAS  
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