534
FXUS61 KCLE 020321
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1021 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE A BRIEF RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
9:30 PM UPDATE...
THE LAKE-EFFECT BAND IS GETTING SLIGHLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
FAR NE CUYAHOGA, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEAUGA, AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL FIGHTING SHEAR CAUSING THE SNOW
TO FAN OUT. THIS IS BRINGING SNOW INTO SOUTHERN ASHTABULA AND
NORTHERN TRUMBULL COUNTIES, SO EXPANDED HIGHER POPS INTO THOSE
AREAS. STILL EXPECT THE CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE WITH A
STRENGTHENING BAND LATER TONIGHT OVER THE EAST SUBURBS OF
CLEVELAND, AND SOME LAKE HURON MOISTURE IS STARTING TO REACH
INTO EASTERN ERIE COUNTY, PA AS THE FLOW VEERS BEHIND A TROUGH,
SO SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE OVERNIGHT. THE SNOWFALL RATES
WILL NOT BE AS IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND FETCH STARTING TO
SHORTERN, BUT SEVERAL MORE INCHES OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW THE CLEAN
UP PROCESS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW FOR
LAKESHORE AREAS OF ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES MAY BE DONE AS
THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER MORE WNW TO NW, WITH THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS NOW BECOMING FOCUSED IN INLAND UPSLOPE AREAS.
6:30 PM UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED, AT LEAST NOT YET. THE MAIN LAKE-EFFECT BAND THAT HIT
MUCH OF LAKE COUNTY VERY HARD TODAY HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME
MUCH LESS ORGANIZED THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM
BOTH SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSED THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL HAS LIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A
RESULT, ALTHOUGH THE BAND HAS BECOME MORE FANNED OUT AND IS NOW
AFFECTING EASTERN CUYAHOGA, NORTHERN GEAUGA, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ASHTABULA, AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES, IN ADDITION TO LAKE
COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST RAP BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE,
LIFT, AND INSTABILITY WILL DEEP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 12-15
THOUSAND FEET AGAIN WITH STRONG OMEGA THROUGH A SATURATED DGZ.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTH SHORE CONVERGENCE THANKS
TO LAKE AGGREGATE THERMAL TROUGHING SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT. IT MAY NOT BECOME AS HEAVY AS
IT WAS THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED SHEAR, BUT SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD INCREASE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF BAND
LOCATION, STILL FAVOR A POSITION NORTH OF THE HREF MEMBERS WHICH
CONTINUE TO TURN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NW AND BREAK THE BAND UP
TONIGHT. THE STRONG THERMAL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SHORE SHOULD
KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MORE WESTERLY AND CAUSE A DOMINANT BAND
TO REMAIN IN TACT OVER NE CUYAHOGA, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LAKE,
AND NORTHERN GEAUGA COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING. THE BAND MAY WOBBLE A BIT AND AFFECT ADJACENT AREAS,
BUT THIS SHOULD BE THE MAIN LOCATION. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND,
CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECASTS LOOK GOOD, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 10-20
INCHES OVER THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
FARTHER TO THE EAST, ADDITIONAL LAKE-EFFECT BANDS ARE TRYING TO
ORGANIZE INTO ASHTABULA, ERIE, AND NORTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FLOW
TURNS MORE NW AND ALLOWS A LAKE HURON BAND TO CONNECT INTO NW
PA. UNTIL THEN, LIGHTER SNOWS ARE EXPECTED IN NW PA GIVEN THE
SHORTER FETCH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT STILL COULD
ADD UP TO 8-12 INCHES WHERE THE SQUALLS PERSIST. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS MAY FINALLY FALL INLAND OF THE LAKE TONIGHT IN UPSLOPE
FAVORED AREAS AS OPPOSED TO ON THE ALREADY BURIED LAKESHORE
COMMUNITIES.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE WITH THIS MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IS
EXTENDING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ERIE COUNTY PA
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR UNTIL 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN A LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LARGE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH THE
AXIS CENTER WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY AND IMPACTS WILL COME FROM LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING THE PRIMARY AND SOME OF THE SECONDARY SNOWBELT
AREAS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN A MAIN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND THAT HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM FAR NEOH DOWN
CLOSER TO THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA. AS OF 315 PM EST, THE MAIN
SNOW BAND IS HITTING LAKE COUNTY INTO NORTHERN GEAUGA VERY HARD.
THIS BAND HAS NOW DRIFTED INTO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
CUYAHOGA COUNTY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AMONGST THE HIGH-RES
FORECAST GUIDANCE THAT IS MAIN BAND WILL POSITION ITSELF FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CUYAHOGA, LAKE, AND GEAUGA COUNTIES
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS HINTS OF A WEAKER
SECONDARY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TRYING TO FORM OFFSHORE OF
ASHTABULA AND ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE OVERALL MESSAGE IS ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN
THE SNOWBELT AREA ALREADY HARDEST IT AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN
CUYAHOGA COUNTY WILL BE SEEING HEAVY SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH RIGHT
NOW THAT IS HELPING TO CHANGE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS SUBTLE CHANCE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE GOING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AREAS FROM THE CLEVELAND AREA TO ERIE PA SEEING HEAVY
SNOWFALL. THE CURRENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BE SURE TO SEE THE
LATEST WSW TEXT PRODUCT AND THE DETAIL INFORMATION IN THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
EXPECTATIONS.
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE SNOWBELT REGION, THE WEATHER WILL BE
RELATIVELY QUIET BUT COLD. THERE WILL BE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME PASSING
SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS
DURING THE DAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LINGERS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT ON TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONLY HEADLINE UPDATES WITH THIS
PACKAGE WERE TO EXTEND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ERIE COUNTY
THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH STUBBORN LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING UNDERNEATH A COLD AIR MASS
AND PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THE MOST PERSISTENT AND HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS ERIE COUNTY, PA, AIDED BY AN
UPSTREAM LAKE HURON MOISTURE CONNECTION AND THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT LAKE EFFECT WARNING THROUGH 7 PM TUESDAY. RESIDUAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH OUT OVER LAKE ERIE TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES CENTERED OVERHEAD, SHIFTING FLOW
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, EXTENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION AND USHERING IN A POTENTIALLY EVEN COLDER AIR
MASS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST 925 MB WINDS AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS, LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THAT WIND FIELD TRANSLATING TO SURFACE
GUSTS EXIST DUE TO THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
TYPE BEING SNOW, ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN, ESPECIALLY EARLIER
IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ACTIVE WEATHER AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. STRONG WINDS, LAKE EFFECT SNOW, AND
SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS, WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DIPPING TO AROUND -15 DEGREES C THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS COLD AIR
MASS, SO ANTICIPATE THAT BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS
WILL HAVE ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE NEAR 850 MB IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WHICH
COULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW (10 TO 30%) FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN
45 MPH, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT AND/OR SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE
AXIS BECOMES CENTERED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, THOUGH INITIAL SIGNS SUGGEST IT
WON'T BE AS STRONG AS THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TRICKY, LOW CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY AT
KYNG AND KERI WHICH WILL BE MOST FREQUENTLY IMPACTED BY LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS. FIRST OFF, KTOL, KFDY, KMFD, AND KCAK
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY AND VFR, WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS AT
ANY TIME DURING THE TAF PERIOD AT THESE TERMINALS, BUT OVERALL
LOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. FOR KERI, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY FREQUENT. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN NEARLY CONSTANT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. SOME PERIODS OF
LIFR ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SNOW, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION IS
GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO THIS WILL MAKE
TIMING HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS VERY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE, WEAKER BANDS AS OPPOSED TO THE SINGLE HEAVY BAND OF
THE PAST FEW DAYS. KCLE AND KYNG WILL BE BRUSHED BY THE LAKE-
EFFECT SNOWS AT TIMES. KYNG IS LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED MORE
FREQUENTLY WITH NEAR CONSTANT LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR TO LOW END
VFR, BUT THERE WILL BE HEAVIER SQUALLS PASSING THROUGH, SO TRIED
TO TIME THESE WINDOWS IN PROB30 GROUPS WHERE VISIBILITY COULD
DROP TO 1 MILE OR LESS. KCLE IS THE TOUGHEST. MOST OF THE
IMPACTFUL SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, BUT THERE WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHT SNOW, AND USED PROB30 GROUPS THERE TOO FOR
TRYING TO TIME WINDOWS OF HEAVIER SQUALLS THAT COULD DROP
VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR LESS.
GENERALLY W TO WSW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, EXCEPT 10-20 KNOTS AT KERI TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST-PERSISTENT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IN
OUR REGION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT IN FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MARINE
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK FOR
MUCH OF LAKE ERIE. FLOW WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST, 15
TO 25 KNOTS, THROUGH TUESDAY, BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWEST, 25 TO 30
KNOTS, ON WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR GALE CONDITIONS
BEHIND A STRONG COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, 30 TO 35 KNOTS. ELEVATED NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST ON FRIDAY, 15 TO 25 KNOTS, WITH ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES NEEDED FOLLOWING ANY POTENTIAL GALES.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ003.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
SYNOPSIS...GRIFFIN
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/GRIFFIN
SHORT TERM...KAHN
LONG TERM...KAHN
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KAHN
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