873
FXUS61 KCLE 171752
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1252 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CANADA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND EXTEND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON
SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ENTERS AND FLOW BACKS AND LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM. SOME FLAKES WILL CONTINUE TO FLY IN
FAR NE OH AND NW PA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY. LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH PEEKS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION, SUSPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND IT IS NOT OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY THAT SOMEONE IN NORTHWEST OR CENTRAL OHIO MAKES A
RUN AT 40 DEGREES.
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PUSHING
THROUGH CANADA AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA, CROSSING THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN, CHANGING OVER TO SNOW STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE 100 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT, GIVING THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPORTING PRECIPITATION. THE TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHARP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH -10 C AT 850 MB QUICKLY DIVING IN BY 21Z SATURDAY. OVERALL,
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH; HOWEVER, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN THE
SNOW BELT MAY OVERPERFORM WITH THE ONSET OF THE EVENT AND ALLOW
FOR 1-2" BY SUNSET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SHOULD DEPART TO THE EAST LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE AREA. ALOFT, A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL ALLOW FOR COLD, ARCTIC AIR TO SURGE SOUTH. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MARK THE START OF A RAPID TRANSITION INTO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. BEFORE DIVING TOO FAR INTO
TEMPERATURES, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
COMBINED WITH PLUMMETING 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE ERIE WILL
AGAIN PRESENT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IMPACTING AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NUDGE NORTH INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH MAY SHIFT THE PRIMARY
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT NORTH OF THE AREA. ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT
REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES, EXPECT ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL TO HAVE A HIGH SLR.
THE MORE NOTABLE IMPACT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, WILL BE THE START OF TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS BUT BY MONDAY
THE ENTIRE AREA WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH GUSTY
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH FORECAST, WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE DAY MAY
FALL AS LOW AS -20F. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN COLDER. ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS, BUT BY MONDAY
NIGHT THEY WILL FALL INTO THE 0 TO -5F RANGE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
AS LOW AS -25F. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A THREAT TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY, ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROLONGED COLD WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, FRIGID COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH
OF THE CONUS.
LOOKING FIRST AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION
THAT FALLS AT ANY POINT WILL REMAIN LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN. A NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTING ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PUSHES ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT NORTH OF THE
AREA. BY THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCE LESSEN AS
MODELS DIVERGE IN THE TIMING OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. MOST MODELS AGREE ON THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE EFFECT ON THURSDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS ANOTHER CLIPPER IMPACTING THE REGION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT NO
NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL IN THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT.
THE MORE NOTABLE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PERSISTING
ARCTIC COLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL
NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AGAIN NEAR
-20F. THESE TEMPERATURES 'REBOUND' SLIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY IN THE LOW TEENS, BUT THE MORE NOTABLE 'WARM UP' WILL BE
THURSDAY WHEN MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FRIGID TUESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO NEAR -10F ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AGAIN
APPROACHING -25F. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MOST LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -10F. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO GROW AS LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE REMAINED
PRETTY CONSISTENT COMPARED TO ONE ANOTHER IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILL VALUES. LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS BY THURSDAY AS MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT ON HOW MUCH THE AREA WILL WARM.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD BECAUSE OF
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES GET, BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE DURATION OF THESE
TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, RESEARCH
SUGGESTS THAT WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 16F FOR 48 HOURS OF
LONGER, THERE IS AN INCREASE RISK OF IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST MEETS THIS CRITERIA FOR NEARLY 60 HOURS SPANNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE, BUT ARE
NOT LIMITED TO, FROZEN/BURST PIPES, DEAD CAR BATTERIES, AND IMPROPER
USE OF SECONDARY HEATING SOURCES WHICH CAN LEAD TO CARBON MONOXIDE
POISONING AND INCREASED STRUCTURE FIRES. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE
FOR THESE COLD TEMPERATURES, BUT HERE ARE SOME REMINDERS FOR WHAT TO
DO DURING THEM:
*MINIMIZE TIME OUTDOORS.
*CHECK ON THE ELDERLY AND OTHER VULNERABLE PEOPLE AND MAKE SURE THEY
ARE OKAY.
*BRING PETS INSIDE.
*TO AVOID FROZEN PIPES, INSULATE THE PIPES AND OPEN SINK CABINETS TO
EXPOSE PIPES TO HEATING AIR.
AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROVIDED. AS A REMINDER, THIS YEAR THE NWS HAS ALSO SIMPLIFIED
COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS TO IMPROVE MESSAGING OF THESE HAZARDS. MORE
INFORMATION ON THESE UPDATES CAN BE FOUND VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OR OUR
WEBPAGE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR VSBYS FROM RAIN
WILL QUICKLY FALL TO IFR VSBYS IN A RAIN/SNOW MIX. AS A COLD
FRONT SLIDES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING,
RAIN/SNOW SHOULD CHANGEOVER TO MAINLY SNOW WITH POCKETS OF LIFR
VSBYS/CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
ADDED A PERIOD OF LLWS LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG, 210-DIRECTION 45 TO 50-KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS SATURDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS THIS MORNING ARE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO 10-15 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE. DURING
THE TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY SOUTH, SOME WAVES OF 3-5 FEET ARE STILL
POSSIBLE FROM WILLOWICK TO RIPLEY NY SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM TODAY.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A NOTABLE PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS
LAKE ERIE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND INCREASES THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOWS FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7PM THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN
EVENTS, AM OPTING TO LET ANY HEADLINES LAPSE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIKELY BE REISSUED FOR AREAS FROM VERMILION TO RIPLEY NY FOR THIS
EVENING, LIKELY PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW AND AREAS WITHOUT ICE TO SEE
WAVES OF 3-5 FEET.
A BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
WEAKENING IN WINDS BEFORE THEY RAMP BACK UP BY MONDAY MORNING FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15-25 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFTS. HOWEVER, ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A FRIGID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN RAPID ICE GROWTH ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. IN ADDITION, THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD MAY
LEAD TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR ICE FREE AREAS ON LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...CAMPBELL
LONG TERM...CAMPBELL
AVIATION...KAHN
MARINE...CAMPBELL
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