313
FXUS61 KCLE 180232
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
932 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MID- NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
930 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND STILL EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING EAST AND TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AND SNOW SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES NEEDED
WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS IN STORE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND SNOW, FOLLOWED BY LAKE- ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT
SATURDAY NIGHT. WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS, THOUGH COULD SEE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH ESTABLISHED HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS TWO AREAS
OF INTEREST THIS AFTERNOON; AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHERNMOST
SYSTEM WILL SUPPLY MORE RICH, GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE NORTHERNMOST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE, RAIN IS MOST
LIKELY INITIALLY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF WET SNOW WILL BE FAVORED IN ANY HEAVIER
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION RESULTING FROM WET-BULBING WITH THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE HOVERING NEAR THE 0C MARK. THINK THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED ISSUES WITH THE BRIEF, HEAVIER POCKETS OF
SNOW, BUT OVERALL, MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF
WET/SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY.
AS WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE-ENHANCED
SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA,
RESULTING IN UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A
RESULT, WITH AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD PERHAPS JUST BARELY
TOUCHING OUR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN EAST-CENTRAL OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THIS TROUGH ALSO BRINGS ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AREAWIDE, AND SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE/IMPACTS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. INVERSION
HEIGHTS AND LAKE-INDUCED INSTABLILTY GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TARGETS
THE GREATER CLEVELAND AREA FIRST AND THEN AS THE FLOW BACKS, SHOULD
SHIFT FOCUS TOWARDS THE REST OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRIMARILY IMPACTING ERIE COUNTY, PA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. PEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ICE ON LAKE ERIE MAY SOMEWHAT
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL BUT NOT COMPLETELY. EXPECTED
SNOWFALL IS AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES FOR MOST OF THE SNOWBELT REGION
OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA, WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR FOUR INCHES OR MORE FOR THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT IN EASTERN
CUYAHOGA, LAKE, GEAUGA, ASHTABULA, AND ERIE, PA COUNTIES. THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT FOR PARTS OF THE SNOW BELT.
STARTING TO FEEL LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT THIS POINT BUT AS WE'VE
BEEN MESSAGING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, BITTER COLD IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-WEEK. WITH CONTINUE RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE GENERAL IDEA OF VERY COLD WIND CHILLS, WENT AHEAD
AND ISSUED A EXTREME COLD WATCH AREAWIDE FOR EARLY MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE A
SOLID COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE THE -2 TO 5 WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS, PRODUCING MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF -
15 TO -25, WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS OUR AREA AS
EXPERIENCED SINCE DECEMBER 2022. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PART OF THE COLD IS LISTED IN THE SECTION
BELOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY TUESDAY, ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO TREND LOWER
(LOOKING AT LOWS ABOUT 2 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW ZERO), THOUGH WINDS
START TO WEAKEN A BIT. EITHER WAY, THIS COMBINES FOR MINIMUM WIND
CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 TUESDAY MORNING. WON'T SEE A WHOLE LOT OF
RELIEF DURING THE DAY EITHER AS AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS AROUND -10 TO -15. THE
SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. CURRENTLY WE ARE FORECASTING
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -10 BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS,
INCLUDING THE ECWMF AND CMC, THAT ARE SHOWING LOWS TO AROUND -20,
WHICH IS NEAR ALL-TIME LOWS FOR SOME CLIMATE SITES. AT MINIMUM,
THERE IS A GREAT SHOT AT RECORD DAILY LOWS ON WEDNESDAY, FOR WHICH
WE HAVE INCLUDED A CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. THE LONG DURATION NATURE
OF THIS COLD IS ALSO EXPECTED TO HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL IMPACTS TO
LOCAL INFRASTRUCTURE. FOR EXPECTED IMPACTS AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS,
SEE THE DETAILS IN THE EXTREME COLD WATCH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS COULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 20S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW SOMETIME ON THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES IN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN
TO DETERIORATE AS RAIN SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH
AND THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN MODERATE BURSTS OF SNOW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM
THE WEST STARTING SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS TO 20 KNOTS LIKELY ALONG THE LAKESHORE
(PRIMARILY AT KERI) TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA,
RESULTING IN LOWER WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIAL FOR LLWS WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AT 2000 FT AGL FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PERIODIC GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS SATURDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
ICE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WITH MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS ICE COVERS
AND OPEN WATERS WEST OF AVON POINT ICE COVERED AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
HIGH TONIGHT WITH 15 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BRUTALLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND
SHOULD EXPECT RAPIDLY EXPANSION OF ICE COVER ACROSS MOST OF LAKE
ERIE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOULD ALSO SEE STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FOR ICE-FREE AREAS OF LAKE ERIE.
CLIMATE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, 1/20, AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, 1/22. THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWN BELOW ARE
THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, 1/22.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
PA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...KAHN/MAINES
SHORT TERM...SAUNDERS
LONG TERM...SAUNDERS
AVIATION...MAINES
MARINE...SAUNDERS
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page