312
FXUS61 KCLE 181522
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1022 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLIMB THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME RAIN MIXING IN
FROM MARION TO CLEVELAND WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST HAVE MAINLY
BEEN EXPERIENCING A WET SNOW. TO THE WEST, COLD ADVECTION ALOFT
IS SLIGHTLY OUTPACING THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING SOUTHEAST. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND FEATURE A LITTLE MORE SNOW THIS
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID, SOME AREAS MAY STILL TRANSITION TO A
LIGHT RAIN AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEP NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING ALL LOCATIONS TO SWITCH BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. SNOW RATIOS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA SO
DID RAISE ACCUMULATIONS BY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH IN THE HIGHER
AREAS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT,
WHICH REMAINS WAY WEST IN WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OVERALL, RAIN IS LIGHT AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE
WINDS TO STABILIZE FROM SOME OF THE BRIEF ELEVATED GUSTS FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
THIS MORNING AND ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES TO GENERALLY
REMAIN AS RAIN, BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION
HINTED AT IN SOME AREA OBSERVATIONS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S MAY ODE TO SOME WET-BULBING TO SEE SOME
"CHUNKY RAIN." THE MAIN FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND THE
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR ENTERING THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS SHORT AS DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL BE QUICK TO ENTER THE REGION. THEREFORE, WILL ONLY HAVE UP
TO AN INCH IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR FAR NE OH AND NW PA.
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER HILLS OF NE OH AND NW PA
TO OVERPERFORM SLIGHTLY, BUT THE TRENDS ARE GENERALLY DOWN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED THIS MORNING
FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS.
THE SUNDAY FORECAST IS A BIT SNEAKY WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO, ESPECIALLY NEAR/EAST OF CLEVELAND. AFTER
A LULL IN SNOW TONIGHT, A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO TRY AND CREEP
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN, A FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SETUP WILL START TO EMERGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NNW FLOW
ACROSS LAKES HURON AND ERIE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
JUST EAST OF THE CLEVELAND METRO GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH. THIS
EVENT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE SFC-5000 FT LAYER OVER THE LAKE WILL BE
VERY UNSTABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT, SO THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO UPTICK AS A SNEAKY SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT BEFORE
THIS EVENTS STARTS TO PIVOT EAST, AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD BELOW.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN STORY TO START THE NEW WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE EXTREME
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT PLUNGES INTO MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD ARCTIC TEMPERATURES IN NEARLY
6 YEARS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. (END OF JANUARY/BEGINNING OF
FEBRUARY 2019).
THE VERY EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY WILL EXPAND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW (POLAR
VORTEX) SPINNING NEAR HUDSON BAY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL FUNNEL A
CROSS POLAR FLOW OF BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HUGE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORTEX
NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A STRONG 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHWARD. THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX STARTING OVER HUDSON BAY AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GRADUALLY BUILDING
NORTHWARD SUPPORTS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PATTERN,
WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FIRST DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THEN HOOK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS A COMMON SET-UP FOR THE COLDEST ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SINCE OFFSHORE FLOW LIMITS ANY
MODIFICATION FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.
IN TERMS OF HOW COLD, 850 MB TEMPS OF -30 TO -35 C FIRST DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL "MODERATE" TO AROUND -25 C IN THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THIS IS
ALSO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST WEEK OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL YIELD
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 0 TO
5 F RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING TO ABOUT -2 TO -5 F MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD
OVERHEAD, AND THAT IS WHEN MOST AREAS HAVE A SOLID CHANCE AT LOWS IN
THE MINUS TEENS. THE LATEST NBM CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR
THIS ENTIRE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
WITH RESPECT TO DAILY HIGHS. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SET-UP AND ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS,
BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES "WARMER" IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SINCE SNOW
COVER WILL BE LACKING OUTSIDE OF THOSE WHO SEE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (MORE ON THAT LATER). NEVERTHELESS, WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MINUS TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 F TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE
EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES COMBINED WITH THE
PROLONGED NATURE OF THE COLD WILL INCREASE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE
AND PUBLIC HEALTH/SAFETY. SEE THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HEADLINE FOR
DETAILS ON THESE IMPACTS.
IN TERMS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY BACK
FROM NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY
MIDDAY MONDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LAKE-EFFECT BANDS SHIFTING INTO FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA BEFORE
MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN NY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE
WINDOW OF HEAVIER SNOW TO 12 TO 18 HOURS. LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE, BUT MOISTURE DEPTH PER NAM
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS TO QUICKLY BECOME SHALLOW, WITH
THE DGZ ALSO LOWERING TO NEAR THE GROUND LEADING TO SMALL
SNOWFLAKES AND A VERY POWDERY SNOW. THIS ALL COMBINED WITH THE
SHORT DURATION WILL PREVENT SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GETTING OUT OF
HAND, BUT COULD SEE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW GIVEN
THE SMALL, POWDERY FLAKES. AT THIS TIME, KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH 4 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS IN ERIE COUNTY, PA. THIS
WILL BE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT WITH UNCERTAINLY ON WHETHER
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR IN ERIE COUNTY, PA BEFORE THE BAND
LIFTS OFFSHORE, SO HELD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME. ONCE
THE BAND GOES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FLURRIES AND
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND
THE SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS OVER OHIO AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
RECOVER INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SINGLE DIGITS WILL LINGER
IN NW PA. MUCH BETTER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 20S BEFORE REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAY RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BUT
DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AND IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY
BE LOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS HAVE
DETERIORATED TO MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR STARTING TO FLOAT INTO
THE EASTERN AIRSPACE. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES COOL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL TO A WIDESPREAD IFR DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE BRIEF
WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND SNOW SHOULD BE DONE AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS (EVEN LIKELY KERI!) BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT. LOW
CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION BUT CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS ARE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BUT WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL START TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAVE BEGUN MVFR SNOW MENTIONS AT KCLE.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW
CEILINGS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOT NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO RAPID ICE EXPANSION AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IN ANY ICE-FREE WATERS AS W WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING SW AT 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY. SW WINDS OF 15-25
KNOTS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE WORST OF THE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THE
DURATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND WELL-PRIMED WATER TEMPERATURES
COULD LEAD TO MOST OF THE LAKE BEING ICE COVERED BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
CLIMATE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING 1/20, AND PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 1/22. THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR 1/22. BELOW
ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR 1/20-22.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
01-20 -17(1985) -22(1985) -18(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -15(1985)
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
PA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LEZ147-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR LEZ149.
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC
NEAR TERM...KEC/SEFCOVIC
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...GARUCKAS
CLIMATE...
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