910  
FXUS61 KCLE 181811  
AFDCLE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH  
111 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL  
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AND MOVE UP THE  
EAST COAST. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS EXPECTED WE HAVE SEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WARM JUST ENOUGH  
TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN WHILE SNOW IS GETTING READY TO MOVE BACK  
INTO THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. TEMPERATURES  
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 30S AND THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE  
WILL LAG BEHIND THE COOLER AIR ALOFT SO THAT WILL LIMIT  
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
RAIN HAS ENTERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH SYNOPTIC  
MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT,  
WHICH REMAINS WAY WEST IN WESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST  
INDIANA. OVERALL, RAIN IS LIGHT AND HAS ALLOWED FOR SURFACE  
WINDS TO STABILIZE FROM SOME OF THE BRIEF ELEVATED GUSTS FRIDAY  
EVENING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING  
THIS MORNING AND ALLOWING FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES TO GENERALLY  
REMAIN AS RAIN, BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION  
HINTED AT IN SOME AREA OBSERVATIONS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER  
TEENS TO LOWER 20S MAY ODE TO SOME WET-BULBING TO SEE SOME  
"CHUNKY RAIN." THE MAIN FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY AND THE  
SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR ENTERING THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN  
TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BY MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY  
SPEAKING, THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS SHORT AS DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR  
WILL BE QUICK TO ENTER THE REGION. THEREFORE, WILL ONLY HAVE UP  
TO AN INCH IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY FOR FAR NE OH AND NW PA.  
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHER HILLS OF NE OH AND NW PA  
TO OVER PERFORM SLIGHTLY, BUT THE TRENDS ARE GENERALLY DOWN.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED THIS  
MORNING FOR MOST WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES AND  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WITH THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO THE  
TEENS.  
 
THE SUNDAY FORECAST IS A BIT SNEAKY WITH THE SNOW POTENTIAL  
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO, ESPECIALLY NEAR/EAST OF CLEVELAND. AFTER  
A LULL IN SNOW TONIGHT, A SYSTEM DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE  
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO TRY AND CREEP  
BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN, A FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW SETUP WILL START TO EMERGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH NNW FLOW  
ACROSS LAKES HURON AND ERIE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW  
JUST EAST OF THE CLEVELAND METRO GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH. THIS  
EVENT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE  
REGION. HOWEVER, THE SFC-5000 FT LAYER OVER THE LAKE WILL BE  
VERY UNSTABLE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT, SO THIS HAS THE  
POTENTIAL TO UPTICK AS A SNEAKY SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT BEFORE  
THIS EVENTS STARTS TO PIVOT EAST, AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD BELOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE MAIN STORY TO START THE NEW WEEK CONTINUES TO BE THE EXTREME  
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT PLUNGES INTO MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE  
ROCKIES, BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD ARCTIC TEMPERATURES IN NEARLY  
6 YEARS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. (END OF JANUARY/BEGINNING OF  
FEBRUARY 2019).  
 
THE VERY EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY WILL EXPAND EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY  
NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW  
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW (POLAR  
VORTEX) SPINNING NEAR HUDSON BAY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL FUNNEL A  
CROSS POLAR FLOW OF BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES  
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS HUGE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORTEX  
NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY  
NIGHT AS A STRONG 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHWARD. THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL  
VORTEX STARTING OVER HUDSON BAY AND GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ALONG WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY GRADUALLY BUILDING  
NORTHWARD SUPPORTS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW PATTERN,  
WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FIRST DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
THEN HOOK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT  
LAKES. THIS IS A COMMON SET-UP FOR THE COLDEST ARCTIC OUTBREAKS  
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SINCE OFFSHORE FLOW LIMITS ANY  
MODIFICATION FROM THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.  
 
IN TERMS OF HOW COLD, 850 MB TEMPS OF -30 TO -35 C FIRST DROPPING  
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL "MODERATE" TO AROUND -25 C IN THE  
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THIS IS  
ALSO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST WEEK OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL YIELD  
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE 0 TO  
5 F RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT FALLING TO ABOUT -2 TO -5 F MONDAY NIGHT. THE  
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD  
OVERHEAD, AND THAT IS WHEN MOST AREAS HAVE A SOLID CHANCE AT LOWS IN  
THE MINUS TEENS. THE LATEST NBM CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR  
THIS ENTIRE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT PERIOD, ESPECIALLY  
WITH RESPECT TO DAILY HIGHS. DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS  
FORECAST GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SET-UP AND ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS,  
BUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES "WARMER" IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SINCE SNOW  
COVER WILL BE LACKING OUTSIDE OF THOSE WHO SEE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (MORE ON THAT LATER). NEVERTHELESS, WIND CHILL  
VALUES WILL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MINUS TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
TUESDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS OF -15 TO -25 F TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE  
EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES COMBINED WITH THE  
PROLONGED NATURE OF THE COLD WILL INCREASE IMPACTS TO INFRASTRUCTURE  
AND PUBLIC HEALTH/SAFETY. SEE THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HEADLINE FOR  
DETAILS ON THESE IMPACTS.  
 
IN TERMS OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY BACK  
FROM NORTHWESTERLY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY  
MIDDAY MONDAY BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO  
LAKE-EFFECT BANDS SHIFTING INTO FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA BEFORE  
MAINLY AFFECTING WESTERN NY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, LIMITING THE  
WINDOW OF HEAVIER SNOW TO 12 TO 18 HOURS. LAKE INDUCED  
INSTABILITY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE, BUT MOISTURE DEPTH PER NAM  
BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOKS TO QUICKLY BECOME SHALLOW, WITH  
THE DGZ ALSO LOWERING TO NEAR THE GROUND LEADING TO SMALL  
SNOWFLAKES AND A VERY POWDERY SNOW. THIS ALL COMBINED WITH THE  
SHORT DURATION WILL PREVENT SNOW AMOUNTS FROM GETTING OUT OF  
HAND, BUT COULD SEE SOME POOR VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW GIVEN  
THE SMALL, POWDERY FLAKES. AT THIS TIME, KEPT SNOW AMOUNTS IN  
THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF  
CLEVELAND WITH 4 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS IN ERIE COUNTY, PA. THIS  
WILL BE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT WITH UNCERTAINLY ON WHETHER  
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR IN ERIE COUNTY, PA BEFORE THE BAND  
LIFTS OFFSHORE, SO HELD OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS TIME. ONCE  
THE BAND GOES OFFSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY FLURRIES AND  
NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP WEDNESDAY AND  
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS THE LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND  
THE SURFACE HIGHS BUILDS OVER OHIO AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES  
WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL  
RECOVER INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SINGLE DIGITS WILL LINGER  
IN NW PA. MUCH BETTER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE LOW/MID 20S BEFORE REACHING THE MID/UPPER 20S FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT  
SNOW MAY RETURN TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, BUT  
DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, AND IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY  
BE LOW.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING. EASTERN  
TERMINALS HAVE SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT  
WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLDER  
AIR ALOFT IS JUST ON THE VERGE OF REACHING CLE AND PROBABLY ERI  
AN HOUR LATER AND EXPECT TO SEE SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS  
IFR. IN THE WEST, THE COLD FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH TOL/FDY AND  
PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY ENDED. WILL EXPECT TO SEE A COUPLE  
HOURS OF SNOW WITH VARYING INTENSITIES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BREAK IS  
EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESUME ON  
SUNDAY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A NORTH  
TO SOUTH BAND OF SNOW TO SET UP NEAR CLE ON SUNDAY BUT CURRENTLY  
LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE AIRPORT. CEILINGS WILL TEND TO  
BE IFR AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE FRONT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS BEHIND THE  
WIND SHIFT. BY TONIGHT, NORTH WINDS WILL SETTLE INTO THE 7-10  
KNOT RANGE.  
 
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXPECTED IN PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE  
OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING  
CONFINED TO MAINLY ERI BY MONDAY. NON VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY,  
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20 KNOT NW WINDS THIS  
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC COLD SUNDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO RAPID ICE EXPANSION AND HEAVY FREEZING  
SPRAY IN ANY ICE-FREE WATERS AS W WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS  
SUNDAY NIGHT BECOMING SW AT 20-30 KNOTS MONDAY. SW WINDS OF 15-25  
KNOTS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE WORST OF THE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT THE  
DURATION OF THE ARCTIC AIR AND WELL-PRIMED WATER TEMPERATURES  
COULD LEAD TO MOST OF THE LAKE BEING ICE COVERED BY MID TO LATE  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY MONDAY MORNING 1/20, AND PERSIST  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 1/22. THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE  
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH CURRENT  
FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR 1/22. BELOW  
ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR 1/20-22.  
 
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE  
01-20 -17(1985) -22(1985) -18(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -15(1985)  
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)  
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)  
 
 
   
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
OH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-  
089.  
PA...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
MORNING FOR PAZ001>003.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST  
THIS EVENING FOR LEZ146.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST  
SUNDAY FOR LEZ147-148.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST  
SUNDAY FOR LEZ149.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...SEFCOVIC  
NEAR TERM...KEC/SEFCOVIC  
SHORT TERM...GARUCKAS  
LONG TERM...GARUCKAS  
AVIATION...KEC  
MARINE...GARUCKAS  
CLIMATE...  
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