666
FXUS61 KCLE 211418
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
918 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
ANOTHER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
9:30 AM UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES
WHERE VALUES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO 5-10F. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE CLOSE TO THE HIGH TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE I71
CORRIDOR HAVE RESULTED IN LOCAL REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES TO
LESS THAN 2SM. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS THESE RAPID
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I71
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
6:30 AM UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED. KCAK HAS BEEN THE COLD SPOT, WITH A PEAK WIND CHILL OF
-20 F. STAY WARM!
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE COLD WAVE WILL PEAK TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE
HUGE MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS EAST
ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE HUGE
MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS
DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE AXIS OF THE
TROUGH IS STILL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
AND THIS IS WHERE THE CORE OF THE COLD IS (850 MB TEMPS OF -30
C). AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE REGION TODAY, A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING THOSE 850
MB TEMPS OF -25 TO -30 C TO SLIDE OVERHEAD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 6
TO 12 F RANGE TODAY, AND SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
COMBINE WITH THESE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE FOR BITTER COLD WIND
CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -20 F RANGE. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z.
AS THE COLDEST 850 MB TEMPS MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, THE ARCTIC
SURFACE HIGH WILL ALSO SLIDE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DECREASING WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO SET UP DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS
IS A RECIPE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO -10 TO -15 F IN MANY
AREAS, EXCEPT -5 TO -10 F IN NW OHIO AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE.
RECORD LOWS ARE IN JEOPARDY AT SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SO SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH SW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -27 F TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THESE VALUES EXCEEDING THE -25 F THRESHOLD IN MANY AREAS
AND THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF 3 DAYS OF THIS COLD WEATHER,
UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 00Z TONIGHT THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE
BACK TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD
SLIDES EAST IN RESPONSE TO SLOW HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE OTHER CONCERN BESIDES THE COLD IS ONGOING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
NEAR THE ERIE, PA LAKESHORE AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ARCTIC
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN LAKE-EFFECT
BAND HAS DRIFTED OFFSHORE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A WEAKER, SECONDARY BAND HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SHORELINES OF
LAKE, ASHTABULA, AND ERIE COUNTIES, BUT THIS IS MOSTLY JUST
NUISANCE SNOW THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN INCH
OR LESS THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THE MAIN BAND TO COME BACK
SOUTH UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING, SO CANCELED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY, PA. THE
LATEST RAP AND HREF GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
VEERING ABOUT 20 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING (ROUGHLY
260 DEGREES). THIS WILL BRING THE BAND BACK ONSHORE OVER
NORTHERN ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES, HOWEVER, SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG WITH INVERSION LEVELS LOWERING TO AROUND 5000
FEET WITH INCREASINGLY SHALLOW MOISTURE AS THE SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS IN. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WEAKER AND BROADER PLUME OF SNOW
SHOWERS THAT SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MORE THAN AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALLY HIGHER. THE WINDOW FOR THIS
WILL BE ABOUT 00Z TO 08Z BEFORE THE BAND DRIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
AND FALLS APART WEDNESDAY MORNING, SUPPORTING DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.
FINALLY, DECENT FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FROM A 180+ KNOT H3 JET AS
THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS SHOWING SOME SIGNALS STARTING
IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO MID TO LATE MORNING THEN BLOSSOMING
FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE IS NOT A
SLAM DUNK FOR SNOW SQUALLS, BUT THE PATTERN AND PARAMETERS ARE
THERE FOR AT LEAST STRONG SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD PUT DOWN A
QUICK INCH OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN NE OHIO AND NW PA IN THE 21
TO 00Z TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BE MONITORED, BUT THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE BURSTS OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY WILL START A "WARMING" TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT DOWN THE COLD AIRMASS FROM CANADA MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND LOWS WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
TEENS SO THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE ZERO FOR THE SHORT
TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPACTS FROM
THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH MOST ACROSS THE AREA SEEING
SNOW SHOWERS AT SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WITH ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. NOW, THE SNOWBELT WILL SEE HIGHER IMPACTS THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE SET-UP ISN'T TOO FAVORABLE FOR A
PROLONGED EVENT. FLOW WILL SET UP IN A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND
VARY THROUGHOUT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING COMING ONSHORE
OCCASIONALLY IN NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DECIDED
TO STICK WITH THE SLIGHT POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REBOUND TO BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE, THOUGH STILL TRENDING TOWARDS BEING SLIGHTLY
BELOW AT AROUND FREEZING. SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR POPS WILL BE SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE PRETTY QUIET AND JANUARY
WILL END WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN NW OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY BECOME A LITTLE
HEAVIER IN NE OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE IMPROVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR, BUT CONTINUED PROB30 GROUPS IN NE OHIO AND NW PA FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR SNOW. THE LAST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
REGION BY 00Z WITH VFR QUICKLY RETURNING, HOWEVER, LAKE-EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE BACK ONSHORE NEAR KERI IN THE 00-08Z
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MVFR, WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE TOO BEFORE THE SNOW FINALLY DISSIPATES AND LIFTS NORTH
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
SW WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WSW BY LATE
THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS AT
TIMES BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
MAIN POINT OF TALKING ACROSS THE LAKE IS THE FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE
OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT EASTWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING 25-30
KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
WILL COVER THAT TIME PERIOD. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL
PREDOMINANTLY BE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS. THE
WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE ERIE FROM VERMILION WEST REMAIN MAINLY ICED
OVER, THOUGH WILL SHIFT AROUND AT TIMES DUE TO THE HIGHER WINDS. THE
CURRENT COLD AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL PROMOTE ICE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
ARCTIC AIR PERSISTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
FORECAST TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR 1/22. BELOW
ARE THE CURRENT RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR 1/21-22.
DATE TOLEDO MANSFIELD CLEVELAND AKRON YOUNGSTOWN ERIE
01-21 -20(1984) -19(1985) -17(1985) -24(1985) -20(1985) -16(1985)
01-22 -12(1936) -10(1936) -10(1936) -13(1936) -9(2022) -7(1970)
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089.
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ001>003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LEZ166>169.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...CAMPBELL/GARUCKAS
SHORT TERM...KENNEDY
LONG TERM...KENNEDY
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...KENNEDY
CLIMATE...
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