238
FXUS61 KCLE 230615
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
115 AM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL EXTEND A WEAK COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
12:30 AM UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERNIGHT WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
THE LIGHT SNOW LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IS
TIED TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SNOW
WILL BE LARGELY NORTH OF THE REGION BY 08Z, AND IT IS ALSO
FIGHTING LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR LEADING TO SOME VIRGA, SO THE CHANCE
POPS THE NEXT FEW HOURS LOOK GOOD. WE WILL THEN MOSTLY BE IN A
DRY SLOT UNTIL THE SNOW MOVES BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN
THE MORNING.
900 PM UPDATE...
THE ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE APPEARANCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON,
WIND CHILLS REMAIN BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN -5F AND -10F. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 20S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW TEENS WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. WIND CHILLS
MAY RETURN TO NEAR ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
RECENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE REVEALS A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A MUCH MORE BROAD UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING BEHIND. LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ITS BRIEF DURATION SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR ABOUT A HALF-INCH OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING A BRIEF LULL THURSDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO BE MORE "SQUALLY" IN
NATURE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, EVIDENT BY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CAPE AROUND 20 TO 40 J/KG
AND A MODEST SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER OF 1 TO 2 VIA THE NAM. GIVEN
COLD ANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPERATURES, ROADS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SLICK, PARTICULARLY FOLLOWING SUNSET.
FOR THE MOST PART, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD GENERALLY YIELD BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, THOUGH RECENT HREF
DATA SUGGESTS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE RATES MAY REACH 1 INCH PER
HOUR AT TIMES THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GLIDE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THIS WEEK. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTH AND DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY
AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND DRIER AIR APPROACH FROM THE WEST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. POPS INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES APPROACHES WHILE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EASTWARD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY WILL
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THEY SETTLE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS. WARMER BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
COLD FRONT WILL BE GLIDING EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY
WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ERIE. BROAD TROUGHING WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PERIODS OF LAKE SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 30S WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY DIP INTO THE LOW 20S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR TO KTOL
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE SNOW LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE BACK IN AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING, STARTING AROUND 13Z AT
KTOL AND KFDY AND BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z AT KCLE AND KMFD. THE SNOW
WILL REACH KCAK AND KYNG BY 18Z AND KERI BY 19Z. ONCE THE SNOW
ARRIVES, CIGS AND VIS WILL DROP TO MVFR, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR.
THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE HEAVIER FROM KCLE POINTS
EAST, SO BROUGHT IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR 1 MILE VISIBILITIES THERE,
BUT THEY COULD GO LOWER AT TIMES. THE WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, BUT W WINDS WILL MAINLY BRING THESE INTO KERI, SO HAVE
THE OTHER SITES DRYING OUT WITH VISIBILITIES AND CIGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR.
SW WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO W THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY AT KERI.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL NON- VFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MARINE
ICE ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASINS OF LAKE ERIE HAS
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND EXPANDED EAST. THE ICE
ADVISORY NOW COVERS THE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO RIPLEY NY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT MAY CAUSE NEW LAKE
ICE TO SHIFT AND COULD CLOSE SHIPPING CHANNELS ON LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE ICE GROWTH TO CONTINUE.
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MAY BRIEFLY
TURN NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE RETURNING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE HAS BEEN SUSPENDED UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY NY DUE
TO EXTENSIVE ICE COVER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KAHN
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/GRIFFIN/KAHN
SHORT TERM...IVERSON
LONG TERM...IVERSON
AVIATION...GARUCKAS
MARINE...IVERSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page