883
FXUS61 KCLE 232035
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
335 PM EST THU JAN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A TROUGH IS BISECTING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW OHIO, EXTENDING FROM
DETROIT TO DEFIANCE AT 3 PM. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON AREA WIDE. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE SEEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH IS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE GROUND AS IT NEARS NW PENNSYLVANIA DUE TO THE VERY DRY
SUB CLOUD AIR. BACK TO THE WEST WE EXPECT SNOW TO FILL IN ALONG
THE COLD FRONT, BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS SHALLOW
AND ONLY EXTENDS UP TO AROUND 8K FEET. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ALSO BELOW THIS LAYER WITH SHALLOW LIFT
RAMPING UP ALONG THE FRONT, WE ARE EXPECTING A MODERATE BURST
OF SNOW TO FILL IN ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER IS INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS BUT NEITHER
THE WINDS NOR THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES INDICATES HIGH END
SQUALLS. MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN IS CONTRIBUTING TO SNOW
SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM INDIANA AND WILL SEE SOME CONTRIBUTION
OF MOISTURE OVER LAKE ERIE DESPITE THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
LAKE BEING MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THE ICE IS LIKELY TO REDUCE
POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT THOUGH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL EXPECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS RESULTING IN A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE SNOWBELT. WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE
AREAS FOR ANY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 8-15 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE WARMER VALUES NEAR LAKE
ERIE.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST BRUSHES THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRESSURE FALLS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE WE WILL
SEE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPAND NORTH UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OFFSHORE OF ERIE COUNTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 20 DEGREES BUT GRADUAL
CLEARING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WILL BE
WELCOMED. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MANY AREAS IN
THE EAST WILL SEE LOWS DIP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES WITH WARMING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A SHORTWAVE/WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY,
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT THE START OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN INCH OR LESS.
THERE COULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SO PRECIPITATION MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE SURFACE; OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE (ROUGHLY 20
PERCENT TO 30 PERCENT) POPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE CWA
ON SUNDAY, BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
OUTSIDE OF ADDITIONAL LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE
SNOWBELT WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE OH AND NW PA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS
TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE AIR MASS WILL FINALLY WARM UP A BIT AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, IT WILL BREEZY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH
SATURDAY SO WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY
MORNING AND THE TEENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A
BIT SUNDAY; EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
MONDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PIVOTING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. NOT SEEING A TON OF SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
THIS FAR OUT (ESPECIALLY IF THE LAKE CONTINUES TO FREEZE), BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE/COMMUNICATE AS WARRANTED. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ARE LIKELY.
IN GENERAL, A (RELATIVE) WARM UP IS FAVORED; MANY LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY MONDAY
THROUGHOUT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID (AND POSSIBLY UPPER)
20S EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY RETURN TO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONDITIONS RANGE FROM VFR IN NW PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NE OHIO
WITH MVFR EXPANDING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. A LIGHT REGION OF
SNOW IS OVER NORTHEAST OHIO ALTHOUGH SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS IS LIMITING IMPACTS. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FROM NEAR PONTIAC MICHIGAN TO ALMOST DEFIANCE OHIO. SNOW IS
EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM TODAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY BELOW A MILE WITH A
BURST OF MODERATE SNOW ALONG THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO WESTERLY
WINDS. LATER THIS EVENING, SNOW WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE
SNOWBELT AND WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO LINGER AT CLE/ERI/YNG.
OTHERWISE MOST OTHER SITES WILL DRY OUT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF
FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. MANY SITES CAN EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT BACK
TO VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN TO MVFR
ON FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-15
KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 22 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THE WIND SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4-10PM AT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO WESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY ON FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL NON-VFR
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
MARINE
THE ICE ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED SINCE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND MOST
RAPID ICE GROWTH HAVE ENDED, BUT SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MODERATE ICE GROWTH.
ICE MAY SHIFT AS WINDS REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WHICH COULD CLOSE SHIPPING CHANNELS ON LAKE ERIE.
ADDITIONAL SHIFTING IS POSSIBLE AS WINDS ON THE LAKE INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FRIDAY, BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER MONDAY; WINDS
IN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASINS MAY REACH 30
KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE (DESI LREF) HIGHLIGHTS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
FAR EASTERN BASIN IN A 20 TO 40 PERCENT OF GALES MONDAY, SO WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES. EXPECT WINDS TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW 25 KNOTS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE REMAINS SUSPENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FOR NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RIPLEY NY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
ICE COVER.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...MAINES
LONG TERM...MAINES
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...MAINES
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