158
FXUS61 KCLE 170521
AFDCLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1221 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT, WITH A
TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
930 PM UPDATE...
WITH THIS LATE EVENING CHECK UP ON THE NEAR TERM FORECAST, WE
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY POPS FROM 02Z THROUGH
12Z MONDAY MORNING. WE TWEAKED THE POPS NOW THROUGH 06Z OR SO TO
BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WE TRIED TO BETTER ALIGN
THE HIGHER POPS WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
COMING OFF THE LAKE IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION
IMPACTING THE BOTH THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELT THIS
EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES VARYING BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW
POCKETS UP UP TO 1/2 AN INCH TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES.
700 PM UPDATE...
WE ALLOWED MOST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHWEST
OHIO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WE DID EXTEND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH 06Z THIS EVENING FOR A FEW COUNTIES LIKE LORAIN,
ASHLAND, RICHLAND, AND MORROW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS, SOME BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY AT
TIMES, IMPACTING NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO AS WELL AS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS. WE ALSO
ADDED SOME BLOWING SNOW INTO THE FORECAST WORDING FOR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING EASILY TO
35 MPH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND IS
NOW IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO A COASTAL LOW
NEAR LONG ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING TO 960 MB IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG, NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH AND DEEP SURGE
OF ARCTIC AIR DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE LINGERING SYNOPTIC SNOW OVER FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO LAKE- EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH.
MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN THE STEADY SNOW ALREADY END THIS
AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR FAR NE OHIO AND NW PA WHERE A LINGERING MID-
LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z OR SO. THE BULK OF
THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE DONE FOR NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO OTHER
THAN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, HOWEVER, THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FILL BACK IN ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
SNOWBELTS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SEEDING FROM THE
UPSTREAM LAKES AND AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL WRAPAROUND SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE. REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS ARE SHOWING THIS FILLING IN ACROSS SE
LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE, AND WITH A NW MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND, THE TRAJECTORY AND UPSLOPING WILL CAUSE THIS SNOW TO BLOSSOM
OVER THE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SNOWBELTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH
AS EARLIER THAT THIS SECOND WAVE WILL BE AS HEAVY, BUT WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW ALREADY FALLING ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED
IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW ON TOP OF THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED,
KEPT THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR NE OHIO AND NW PA
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT OF EASTERN CUYAHOGA, SOUTHERN LAKE,
GEAUGA, ASHTABULA, ERIE, AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEDINA, SUMMIT, PORTAGE, AND TRUMBULL
COUNTIES. THE REST OF NE OHIO WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. FOR NW AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO, MOST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 1 INCH OR LESS. KEPT THE ADVISORY IN THOSE
AREAS THROUGH 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW, BUT AS MENTIONED,
MOST OF THE SNOWFALL IS DONE OUT THERE.
ONE THING THAT COULD CAUSE THE ABOVE MENTIONED SNOWFALL TOTALS TO
END UP LESS IS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OUT PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER 05Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CAUSE THE LAKE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SNOW TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
PURE LAKE-EFFECT SET-UP. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF ICE COVER ON
LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH THE SHORT NW FETCH. HREF GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT
THAT A LAKE HURON FETCH WILL IMPACT THE PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF
CLEVELAND THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY PIVOT INTO NW PA TONIGHT, SO
THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR ACHIEVING THESE HIGHER STORM TOTALS. THE
IMPACTS ARE STILL THERE REGARDLESS GIVEN THE BLOWING SNOW, WHAT FELL
THIS MORNING, AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS, BUT WANTED TO POINT OUT THIS
LOWER CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.
ON MONDAY, THE DEEP MID/UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH AND LARGE POOL OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES (AND ALL OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK) AS A MID-LEVEL VORTEX SPINS IN THE VICINITY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION
WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25 C WILL KEEP LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
GOING, ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR AND ICE COVER WILL LIMIT THE
ORGANIZATION. THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL STEADILY BACK TO WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
PRIMARY SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND, SO AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF EASTERN CUYAHOGA, LAKE, GEAUGA, ASHTABULA,
AND ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY PUSH
FARTHER SOUTH AND DISSIPATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE MONDAY
NIGHT AS A LARGE 1048 MB ARCTIC HIGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL SET UP A BITTER COLD NIGHT.
SPEAKING OF THE COLD, THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE LATE
JANUARY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TEENS TO AROUND 20
AFTER LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FALL INTO THE 0 TO 5 F RANGE IN MANY AREAS, WITH SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR NE OHIO AND NW PA. WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL BE IN THE -5 TO -15 F RANGE (COLDEST IN NW PA), SO SOME WIND
CHILL HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ON
TUESDAY BUT WILL ALLOW FOR A FRIGID AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS FOR HIGHS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE STILL EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS ON WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN US. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW AND SOME SNOW COULD ENTER FROM
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER AS THE SYSTEM TRENDS FURTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A SURFACE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEFORE BEING CUT OFF DUE
TO INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST ON
THURSDAY, AS THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COLDER AIR MASS WITH THE SNOW IN
THE REGION. LOWS ON THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE IN THE LOWER 10S AND
HAVE WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO. HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE REGION WILL
HELP IMPROVE TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT STEERS A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE 20S AND IMPROVE
INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH VARYING VISIBILITIES EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
BLOW AROUND, COVERED WITH BLSN IN THE TAF, BUT IMPACTS FROM THIS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. WEST WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 30-35KTS INTO
MONDAY, GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION. SOME IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS IN PLAY
FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK
NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
ELEVATED NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OVERALL, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
STEADY STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST FOR MONDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP, FOLLOWING THE LONG
AXIS OF THE LAKE. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR GALES, BUT BELIEVE
THAT WINDS WON'T QUITE MAKE IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER AND
DIMINISH WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. A SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN US ON WEDNESDAY AND ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO
BECOME FAVORED THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING WEST FLOW BACK TO THE LAKE.
WITH ELEVATED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LAKE, WILL MAINTAIN THE MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ011>014-089.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
OHZ020>023-031>033-038-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GARUCKAS
NEAR TERM...GARUCKAS/GRIFFIN
SHORT TERM...SEFCOVIC
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...26
MARINE...SEFCOVIC
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